Review of John Ringo's "The Last Centurion"

In some ways this book reminds me of Michael Crichton's "State of Fear" but amped up as only John Ringo can. For those who have read any of Ringo's previous books it is not secret what he thinks of politics and liberal politics in particular. Bandit Six, the hero of TLC, is "Kildar's" Mike Harmon without the non-family friendly sexual view point. If you haven't read any of Ringo's previous books this is not for the weak hearted liberal in the family.

The book basically looks at what the world would be like in ten year if three disasters occur almost simultaneously, some reviewer would argue that it is only two but the miss what may be the book's primary point. The disasters are, in order, a pandemic, environmental and political. The book is written as a review of Bandit Six's experiences as if he was writing his journal's after the fact. Much, maybe way too much, of the book deals with facts. Facts about pandemics, about the way we handle disease control in a pandemic. About global warming and how politics has adopted it as a party issue and about political leadership or the lack thereof.

The book can be pretty dull at points but those points are critical to the story line and if they aren't understood because the reader hasn't heard them before the story doesn't work very well. So it is pretty important to pay attention to the dull parts as well as the rest.

Another major part of the story is the way blogs are, and will likely continue, to affect the news media. It also lays out what might happen if the military was to get serious about using blogs and the access they provide to the public to counter-act much of the misinformation that the media presents, aka media propaganda.

In a large part the story is like much of the Kildar novels, a fantasy about what the world might be like if people with the power to do so would do what makes sense rather than what the rules say they should do. It also has a lot to say about trust, although I think a lot of this falls under the heading of personal responsibility.

You'll notice I haven't really said much about the actual story. That is because I don't like to read reviews that lay out the whole story for me because it takes away much of the pleasure I have in reading a book myself. But for those who prefer a review to actually tell you what the book is actually about I will put that below. For the rest of you stop reading here and go get the damn book!
Paper version here and electronic version here.
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Bandit Six is the son of a Minnesota farmer who joins the military and is a captain in Iran in the year 2019. We have successfully invaded Iran and are at about the stage in Iran at this point as we are in Iraq today. Then the avian flu mutates into a form transmittable between humans. Luckily the military identifies this early on and the military is immunized non-voluntarily with a non-certified fully effective vaccine. The rest of the world gets immunized on a purely voluntary basis depending on the individual country's health and governmental policies primarily with a less effective, but certified vaccine. Death rates are severe (30-60% depending on many factors). How the immunization program is handled is much of the first part of the book.

Coincidentally the sun's solar output (OK that is probably redundant but I want to be as clear as possible about what's happening) declines. This causes global cooling while most of the world is still worrying about the effects of global warming. So there are the two natural disasters that all reviewers have agreed on. People die, so many that much of the infrastructure that keeps our personal worlds going falls apart. Food, fuel, and all goods are no longer distributed or produced for the most part. This of course causes the economy to tank a but only the government seems to be very focused on the economy.

Because of this breakdown US forces are withdrawn globally to return to the US to deal with the disaster. Except for a few who are left to safeguard the equipment and there is a LOT of equipment. Bandit Six is one of those left behind as the supply officer in charge of all the equipment left behind in Iran along with one company of mechanized infantry and a bunch of Nepalese contract workers who have no transportation home. A good bit of the action story is about the ordeal Farmer's Freaks go through to make it home. Due to an intrepid group of reports from Rubert Murdoch's news staff (read over zealous idiots) this ordeal is widely reported and the Freaks become national heroes. The way the reporting of the story is managed by Bandit Six is a prime part of the story and leads to the final chapters of the book.

The last half of the book deals with what I consider the third disaster (which actually is also part of the first half on the immunization program). The third disaster comes in the form of a Democrat women president named Warrick, though mostly known as The Bitch through most of the book. Warrick bears an uncanny resemblance to Hilary Clinton, but I am sure that is just coincidence. Basically every wrong decision that could be made by a president is made up to and including misuse of powers to keep the office of president.

Of course in the end good triumphs and the forces of evil, Democrats, are soundly defeated. But the story is really interesting and richly rewarding.

News books from some of my favorite authors.

As always when one of my favorite authors new books came out I had Amazon rush them to me and there have been several lately.

Jim Butcher Small Favor - 10th in the Dresden Files series
It's time for Harry to repay the Queen of the Winter Court for past favors and in the process his friend Michael and Michael's family face mortal danger. Not the best in the series, but damn good.

Elizabeth George Careless in Red - 14th in the Inspector Lynley series
Lynley is far from dealing with his wife's death. This book follows his trail of despair and the seeds of recovery.

Charles Todd A Pale Horse - 10th in the Inspector Ian Rutledge series
Inspector Rutledge struggles on with the ghost of his army sergeant muttering away. As always an interesting and disturbing tale.

C.J. Box Blood Trail - 9th in the Joe Pickett series
Joe and his family have finally moved out of their mother's reach and a good riddance to her. The governor has assigned Joe another no win case where he is very likely to get killed. And if you thought Nate was safe in prison guess again. A very good story with Joe treading the bounds of honor and stepping over the letter of the law....again.

Randy Wayne White Black Widow - 15th in the Doc Ford series
Doc no longer has the contacts he once had and is facing more personal issues while helping his goddaughter out of trouble. If you like Doc you will really like this one.

W.E.B. Griffin & W.E. Butterworth IV Death and Honor - 4th in the Honor Bound series
Like most of the Honor Bound series this novel is more involved in the back story of history than in action. It is a good read and full of interesting insights into figures from history that don't always match what I remember from the history books, or the media stories.

Lee Child Nothing to Lose - 12th in the Jack Reacher series
I have been a fan of this modern day knight errant series for some time. This one felt a bit different from the start. I am not sure exactly why, but through the first three quarters of the novel the story just felt like it was missing something. There were women who needed help, as usual, but for the most part they were unwilling to talk to Reacher. The last quarter of the book explained it all and is where I suddenly found myself reading a book that I ordinarily wouldn't bother to pickup. Jack comes out against the War on Terror and all that comes with it.

Tanya Huff Valor's Trial - 4th in the Confederation series
Torin is back with her old company and ready to deal with normal combat. Of course the universe is not having anything to do with normal and Torin is once more called upon to show the marines that a gunny always knows the right thing to do.

Sea Patrol Second Season sucks!

Has anyone else watched this Australian TV show? It is about the crew of an Aussie patrol boat, so even though they are navy their mission is very similiar to our Coast Guard. Last year I enjoyed this show immensely, however this year I have felt like I am watching something straight out of Hollywood. The crew seems to do everything possible to not fire their guns, at times I wonder if they even load them!

In the first episode they are sent into the harbor of a pacific island which seems to have a revolution going on in order to pick up a NGO team fleeing the violence. With the NGO land rover in sight they see natives with AK-47s and machetes pull them from their truck and beat them. But because one mortar open fire on the boat they turn and head away! Then when they send landing parties they arrive at the dock armed only with their sidearms to face a larger party of natives with automatic weapons and hostages. Then they lower their sidearms to show they mean the locals no harm!

In the third episode they pickup what seem to be refuges who's ship has sunk. However three of the refuges are mercenaries who take the two female officers hostage along with the other refugees. Ok so far, and when the mercs manage to open the door leading to the engine room the captain has two crewmen blocking their path who get in a gun battle with them. The captain and some crew go down to reinforce the blocking party who are running low on ammo (apparently the mercs packed a whole lot of clips in their pants). But instead of holding the mercs back from entering the engine room the captain and crew retreat! Additionally the navigation room is on the other side of the room with the mercs and they enter it with no contest. Now the three mercs armed only with pistols have control of the ships power and navigation! A crew of 21 simple lets three mercs gain complete control of below decks.

Tonight's episode starts with the crew going after an illegal fishing mother ship (ice ship). But they give up after the fishing crew fends the rubber boats off with poles and flares all the while waving machetes. The Armidale class boats have small arms for the crew as well as a 25mm deck gun and two 12.7mm machine guns.

I am not sure if I can watch any more! I wonder if they are going to paint a peace sign on the boat with a motto of "Make love not war"!

What do y'all think?

TV to watch until writers strike delay of new episodes is over

Sea Patrol - An Aussie TV show from last year with 13 episodes. The show focuses on the Australian coastal patrol boat HMAS Hammersley with missions very similar to the US Coast Guard. Watch for the appearance of Yvonne Stahovski (of Chuck) in the final episode.

The Border - A Canadian show currently airing it's eighth episode featuring the Canadian Immigration and Customs Service. Sofia Miloz (Miami CSI) plays a US Homeland Security agent who of course shows lots of American arrogance that the Canadian political heads cave to every time.

Different forms of Libertarianism

This posting from About.com on the different forms of libertarian philosophy was a surprise to me. I would never have thought that so called "Geoliberatianism" or "Social libertarianism" would fall anywhere in the sphere of libertarian philosophy.

Good article on libertarianism in the US today from Time magazine!

I was amazed to find this article from one of the largest media outlets that actually expresses much of my feelings about the current political parties. Amazed because the main media outlets generally have a more "in the rut" view of politics.

Beccy Cole "Poster Girl"

Do our current political labels fit anymore?

What is a liberal? What is a conservative? And just what the heck is a moderate or centrist? I started thinking about this after reading an article on Iran's president telling students they should be asking that liberal professors be fired. I today noticed that Pajamas Media is addressing the issue of what to call those who don't want to be called centrist or moderate.Let's look at the word liberal first;
–adjective
1.favorable to progress or reform, as in political or religious affairs.
2.(often initial capital letter) noting or pertaining to a political party advocating measures of progressive political reform.
3.of, pertaining to, based on, or advocating liberalism.
4.favorable to or in accord with concepts of maximum individual freedom possible, esp. as guaranteed by law and secured by governmental protection of civil liberties.
5.favoring or permitting freedom of action, esp. with respect to matters of personal belief or expression: a liberal policy toward dissident artists and writers.
6.of or pertaining to representational forms of government rather than aristocracies and monarchies.
7.free from prejudice or bigotry; tolerant: a liberal attitude toward foreigners.
8.open-minded or tolerant, esp. free of or not bound by traditional or conventional ideas, values, etc.
9.characterized by generosity and willingness to give in large amounts: a liberal donor.
10.given freely or abundantly; generous: a liberal donation.
11.not strict or rigorous; free; not literal: a liberal interpretation of a rule.
12.of, pertaining to, or based on the liberal arts.
13.of, pertaining to, or befitting a freeman.
–noun
14.a person of liberal principles or views, esp. in politics or religion. 15.(often initial capital letter) a member of a liberal party in politics, esp. of the Liberal party in Great Britain.

There are many things about progress (#1 and #2) that “liberals” are completely against. For example; nuclear power, the global economy, GM crops, new drugs or chemicals, nano-technology, etc.

How does #4 match up with restricting people’s property rights in order to prevent sprawl or promote mass transit (through building high density neighborhoods required to support transit stations)? How does it match up with restricting people’s access to tobacco products, fatty foods, or energy (in an effort to reduce “global warming”)?

How does #5 match up with restricting people’s expression of religion? I have never understood how restricting someone from saying a prayer (as opposed to mandating it) restricts anyone else’s freedom of religious expression.

However #4 and #5 are the principle definitions used in non-democratic countries like Iran. Thus it pays to know in what context the word is meant, either in a western democracy like the U.S. or Australia or in a despotic country like Iran or Libya.

I really don’t see how the current political correctness attitudes show any tolerance as called for with #8.

You can really one use #9 or #10 if you count generosity with other people’s money as the money they generally want to spend is from taxes or lawsuits, not from their own pockets for the most part.

We better take a look at another often used label for the left (one that I think they prefer as it has not become a dirty name, at least so far).

Progressive;
–adjective
1. favoring or advocating progress, change, improvement, or reform, as opposed to wishing to maintain things as they are, esp. in political matters: a progressive mayor.
2. making progress toward better conditions; employing or advocating more enlightened or liberal ideas, new or experimental methods, etc.: a progressive community.
3. characterized by such progress, or by continuous improvement.
4. (initial capital letter) of or pertaining to any of the Progressive parties in politics.
5. going forward or onward; passing successively from one member of a series to the next; proceeding step by step.
6. noting or pertaining to a form of taxation in which the rate increases with certain increases in taxable income.
7. of or pertaining to progressive education: progressive schools.
8. Grammar. noting a verb aspect or other verb category that indicates action or state going on at a temporal point of reference.
9. Medicine/Medical. continuously increasing in extent or severity, as a disease.
–noun
10. a person who is progressive or who favors progress or reform, esp. in political matters.
11. (initial capital letter) a member of a Progressive party.

I already addressed #1 under liberal, but #2 represents a challenge because it is so broad. Better conditions and more enlightened are very subjective that almost anyone can claim that their view represents. Much of what the left wants today is not very new or experimental, though it was 60+ years ago when the term was much more popular with the party.

Now #6 is of course very popular with the left and while the subject of #7 is close to the heart of the left I don’t think they can show that education has progressed as in improved.

Ok, now let’s look at the other side.

Conservative;
–adjective
1. disposed to preserve existing conditions, institutions, etc., or to restore traditional ones, and to limit change.
2. cautiously moderate or purposefully low: a conservative estimate.
3. traditional in style or manner; avoiding novelty or showiness: conservative suit.
4. (often initial capital letter) of or pertaining to the Conservative party.
5. (initial capital letter) of, pertaining to, or characteristic of Conservative Jews or Conservative Judaism.
6. having the power or tendency to conserve; preservative.
7. Mathematics. (of a vector or vector function) having curl equal to zero; irrotational; lamellar.
–noun
8. a person who is conservative in principles, actions, habits, etc.
9. a supporter of conservative political policies.
10. (initial capital letter) a member of a conservative political party, esp. the Conservative party in Great Britain.
11. a preservative.


While this one is a better fit for those on the right than liberal is for the left there are still some inconsistencies. For instance #1, the conservatives have come up with some rather fresh ideas about government that are not what I think of as traditional and are also not existing conditions. The “Contract with America” of the Gingrich era is good example. Also #2 doesn’t cover much of what they have come up with, why else would the left call them radicals?

But much of what the right does or represents is close to #3, so 1 out of 3 is better than what liberal scores as a representation of the left.

How about the so called middle of the political spectrum?

Moderate;
–adjective
1. kept or keeping within reasonable or proper limits; not extreme, excessive, or intense: a moderate price.
2. of medium quantity, extent, or amount: a moderate income.
3. mediocre or fair: moderate talent.
4. calm or mild, as of the weather.
5. of or pertaining to moderates, as in politics or religion.
–noun
6. a person who is moderate in opinion or opposed to extreme views and actions, esp. in politics or religion.
7. (usually initial capital letter) a member of a political party advocating moderate reform.
–verb (used with object)
8. to reduce the excessiveness of; make less violent, severe, intense, or rigorous: to moderate the sharpness of one's words.
9. to preside over or at (a public forum, meeting, discussion, etc.).
–verb (used without object)
10. to become less violent, severe, intense, or rigorous.
11. to act as moderator; preside.

Well these are certainly more subjective descriptions than those that apply to liberal or conservative. Still I have heard some pretty extreme views and positions from so called moderates, the only difference is they seem to share some views with both sides. The problem is the number of combination of views that can be shared with both sides presents a very, very broad spectrum. This represents a collection of views far too large to be identified as a single group.

Centrist;
–noun
1. (esp. in continental Europe) a member of a political party of the Center; moderate.
–adjective
2. of or pertaining to centrists or to their political views; middle-of-the-road.

This may be a better term for the middle as it doesn’t really imply that they all share the same view, only that it is between the two sides. The problem again is it doesn’t tell you anything about their views, it is just a convenient label. One that many, particularly the press, likes to use and act as if those who share the label also share a common viewpoint.

One of the points that seems to have lead to confusion is a couple of words that get used quite often, but their definitions don’t seem to stretch as far as intended.

Before we can really address the word liberty we need to be clear on one of the words used;
Arbitrary;
1. subject to individual will or judgment without restriction; contingent solely upon one's discretion: an arbitrary decision. 2. decided by a judge or arbiter rather than by a law or statute. 3. having unlimited power; uncontrolled or unrestricted by law; despotic; tyrannical: an arbitrary government. 4. capricious; unreasonable; unsupported: an arbitrary demand for payment. 5. Mathematics. undetermined; not assigned a specific value: an arbitrary constant.

You would think that #1 has been covered as we are a country ruled by law and not by men. However when the law can’t easily fit in a eighteen wheel truck trailer it looses a lot of meaning. The power goes to those who can read the law, and by that I don’t mean literally, I mean the lawyers and politicians who are able to apply the written law to their own purposes while the rest of us or left to capricious interpretations or selective applications of the law.

Now obviously when speaking about the power of a government #2 and #3 take on special meaning. And given how many things happen today due to judicial rulings that you can’t just point to the words in our law you might argue that are laws are becoming more arbitrary rather than less.

Given the ever expanding breadth of the law there seems to be very little that is unrestricted or uncontrolled. Consider just how many things require a license to do now days. Not only actions, like marriage or driving, but also professions like barber or tattooist.

Ok, on to the word liberty.

Liberty;
–noun, plural -ties.
1. freedom from arbitrary or despotic government or control.
2. freedom from external or foreign rule; independence.
3. freedom from control, interference, obligation, restriction, hampering conditions, etc.; power or right of doing, thinking, speaking, etc., according to choice.
4. freedom from captivity, confinement, or physical restraint: The prisoner soon regained his liberty.
5. permission granted to a sailor, esp. in the navy, to go ashore.
6. freedom or right to frequent or use a place: The visitors were given the liberty of the city.
7. unwarranted or impertinent freedom in action or speech, or a form or instance of it: to take liberties.
8. a female figure personifying freedom from despotism.
—Idiom
9. at liberty,
a. free from captivity or restraint.
b. unemployed; out of work.
c. free to do or be as specified: You are at liberty to leave at any time during the meeting.

You must admit that #3 has taken a pretty big hit with a lot of words being verboten as they can be considered actionable, either as sexual harassment or a hate crime.

It would also be hard to argue that #4 has taken a pretty major hit given just how many people are in prison. What ever you think about drugs you might want to consider whether it really is a good thing that so many people are in prison for no other reason than drugs.

So now that we know how the labels match-up or fail to match-up with the people they are meant to describe, I would like to suggest some replacements.

First for those not familiar with the Nolan quiz, also known as the world’s shortest political test, take a moment to check it out. I think that this two-dimensional view of the political world is much more accurate and just as easy to understand as the current left-right view. Much of the current Left would actually fall into the bottom of the diamond under the label Statist due to the firm belief in Big Government. I think the remaining set will mainly fall into Centrist or Libertarian as I seldom hear anything from anyone who believes in the more classical Liberal viewpoint, that is personal liberty but economic controls.



The current Right will mainly fall into the Conservative camp and as I have discussed this label is not too inaccurate a view of most. Many though who have begun to focus on personal liberties as those liberties have eroded will find that they fit better in the Centrist or Libertarian camps. Some (particularly Capital Hill Republicans and many Alaskan Republicans) will fit quite nicely in the Statist territory.

Astronomers really acting like government employees lately

First they started playing games with what a "planet" is. Now they are so married to the ancient gods naming convention they won't allow the team that discovered the new planet (pluton, dwarf planet, whatever) name it. I much prefer Xena with a moon called Gabrielle than something called Eris with a moon (or disease) called Dysnomia.

X-Prize Cup

This is a really cool idea and has a lot of potential to drive development that can help in achieving private access to space.

I am concerned about the size of the course. While 10,000 feet by 3,000 feet seems pretty big, when you think about the speed that a rocket powered plane can reach it should go around the course pretty damn quick!

The fans at the event could be a really interesting group. Imagine your NASCAR fans camped out with their satellite TV equipped RVs sharing space with space geeks with RVs bristling with antenna and dishes for every bandwidth and technology. Tail-gaters grilling ribs next to LAM parties playing Total Annihilation!

Is Kofi Annan really that clueless?

At what point does the world admit to the fact, that's right fact, that Kofi Annan is either the most clueless diplomat since Neville Chamberlain or a real, and not very well hidden, ally of the Islamic terrorists?

Speaking to reporters at the airport before departing for Qatar, Mr Annan said Syria had agreed to increase patrols along the Syrian-Lebanese border and "when possible" to start joint patrols with Lebanese troops.

Oh, great! Joint patrols with Lebanese troops, that would be the Lebanese that Hizbollah is part of the government right?


Mr Assad had agreed to take "all necessary measures" to implement paragraph 15 of UN resolution 1701, which deals with the arms embargo, he added.

And exactly who is defining what is "necessary" and "necessary" for what?


He said he was confident the Syrian measures would work.

He is also sure that there will be peace in Lebanon as long as we all just hold hands and sing Kumbaya!

"I think it can happen," he said, quoted by the Associated Press news agency. "It may not be 100%, but it will make quite a lot of difference if the government puts in place the measures the government has discussed with me. I have no reason to believe it will not be done."

Of course it can happen, it is in the Syrian's and Hezbollah's best interest to patrol the border so that no one can catch them transporting weapons across it. I am sure that if you asked the inmates at your local jail to patrol your city streets to prevent burglaries they would be down right ecstatic about the idea!

What is your definition of Peacekeeper?

“peacekeeper” – 2. a soldier, military force, etc., deployed to maintain or restore the peace

I doubt that this is what is meant by the U.N. or the Europeans. I think they have confused the definition with this one;
“observer” – 1. Someone or something that observers
2. a delegate to an assembly

The commander of UN peacekeepers in Lebanon described the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah as "very fragile" and "dangerous" and said that an expanded international force would not disarm Hezbollah.
"The Israelis cannot ask UNIFIL to disarm Hezbollah. This is not written in our mandate," French Maj.-Gen. Alain Pellegrini, commander of the 2,000-member UN Interim Force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, told reporters at UNIFIL headquarters in the coastal town of Naqoura.

If France does return to seek to lead the peacekeeping force, where would that leave Italy's leadership offer? Apparently the Italians would only be in charge from the other side of the world;
A report in the Rome daily "La Repubblica" today says France has offered a dual command with Rome. France would continue to command the force on the ground in Lebanon through General Pellegrini, while Italy would take control of the UN Office of Peacekeeping Operations.
That means France would have operational command on the ground, with Italy given political control at the UN in New York.
All these details are due to be discussed on August 25 in Brussels when UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan meets with EU foreign ministers.

So the UN and Europeans seem to be insistent upon the French being in charge, as if that worked so well in Yugoslavia or in Rwanda.

A spokesman for the Italian Foreign Affairs Committee had this to say;
In the last few years, Italy, with the previous government, has had a more pro-American and pro-Israel foreign policy. The new center-left government is interested in acquiring a new role that is more focused on Europe and to be more active in the Middle East, including the rebuilding of our ties with the Arab world along with our ties with the government of Israel. This is why the new government believes that the strongly pro-American position of the previous government had weakened Italy on both the European and international scene.
So, by assuming a lead role in this conflict, the Italian government believes it can recoup some of these past losses. Besides, the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, which was decided by the new government, risked weakening Italy on the international scene.
And you will recall that last year, there was debate regarding the reform of the United Nations Security Council, which involved the possibility of making Germany a permanent member of the council. This would have further declassed Italy on the European scene. Italy believes that taking on a lead role here can help it reacquire prestige and status with regard to the United Nations.

Italian politicians may look forward to this chance to strengthen their international image but the Italian military seems to understand the big pile of shit they are going to be left standing in.
"If we must draw lessons from past experiences, then we must admit in all honesty that the operations commanded by the U.N. have turned out to be failures, in some cases a total disaster," Gen. Fabrizio Castagnetti was quoted as saying by Milan daily Corriere della Sera.
Asked why, Castagnetti replied, "Because the commander has his hands tied," Corriere della Sera said. "He cannot make decisions without consulting U.N. headquarters in New York."
The commander's "appeals to receive clear directives clash with the elephantine bureaucracy of the United Nations ."
"A mission under U.N. command creates a lot of problems. I will say so to the (Italian) defense minister," the general was quoted as saying.

Other nations also seems to have the idea that the humanitarian mission has priority over the actual job of peacekeeping;
The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) earlier said Manila is likely to send "non-combat" troops as well as medical workers to Lebanon, where the UN is trying to muster an international force to serve as a buffer between Israel and the Hezbollah militia.

Hezbollah has promised to cooperate with Lebanese and U.N. forces but has made clear it will keep its weapons.
Larsen said 2,000 soldiers had been deployed along the eastern border and the government aimed to boost that to 8,600.
"This fact that Lebanon is now forcefully establishing its authority will contribute to pave the way for troop contributors to come forward to a reconfigured and beefed up UNIFIL," Larsen said.

The 2000 troops of the current UNIFIL force have focused on putting out daily reports that show they have been demolishing unexploded ordinance, supplying water to the locals, reporting violation (principally air violation by the IDF), ground and air patrolling to “assess the situation on the ground and to monitor the cessation of hostilities” and accepting handoff from the IDF and handover to the Lebanese Army. They even went so far as to report second hand reports in the area of Baalbeck even though there are no UNIFIL forces in that area and therefore can’t provide direct knowledge of the event.

The demolition of ordinance is done by the UNIFIL-Mine Action Coordination Center which was added to UNIFIL after the Lebanese requested help in eliminating mines and unexploded ordinance in 2000. Just to show what kind of support a UN group provides the organization chart for the MACC Southern Lebanon which not only shows their current members, but also past members. The org chart starts with Serial #1, the admin/log Assistant, #3, the Genitor, and includes past drivers, Programme Managers, Finance Officers.

The UN has been involved in some 59 peacekeeping missions have they ever used force in any of them? Even if the rules of engagement give the peacekeepers authorization to use force in self defense, even prior to being fired on, how likely is it that they will do so? Just look at all the second guessing that goes on with use of force in Iraq and imaging how European forces will react when in a situation where they could fire or not.

Kofi Anan certainly is giving them a good example;
Secretary General: Let me say that the resolution does not require deployment of UN troops to the border. It indicates that, if the Lebanese government were to ask for it, we should assist. The Lebanese Government has not made any such request.
As to your question on disarmament, let me be clear that resolution 1559 asks for the disarmament of all militia, national and non-national, and this was reaffirmed in resolution 1701. The understanding was that it would be the Lebanese who would disarm. I think it is also generally accepted that the disarmament of Hezbollah cannot be done by force. It has to be a political agreement between the Lebanese; there has to be a Lebanese consensus and an agreement among them to disarm. In fact, before the war, this issue was part of a national dialogue going on in Lebanon; I hope they will return to it in earnest. Obviously, if at some stage they need advice or some help from the international community and they were to approach us, we would consider it, but the troops are not going in there to disarm. Let us be clear on that. The other question, perhaps I will defer that to you, that part of the question.
Resolution 1701 paragraph 11(f) calls for UNIFIL to support enforcement of blockade against arms smuggling from Syria only if Lebanon asks for help.

With the way that European nations have been giving Hezbollah status equivalent to actual nations how likely is it that they will provide any opposition to violations of the resolutions by Hezbollah;
"We have no problem with Unifil (UN Interim Force in Lebanon) as long as its mission is not aimed at disarming Hezbollah," Nasrallah said in an interview aired on Lebanese television. He added, however, that if Lebanese troops in southern Lebanon encountered armed militants, the national forces did have the right to collect weapons.
The UNHCR has the mission in assisting with supplies for relief, this should not be the primary mission of peacekeepers. Yet Resolution 1701 paragraph 11(d) calls for exactly this, not that their mission needs any further confusion.

Libertarian fiction - Freehold

Just finished Freehold by Michael Z. Williamson and highly recommended. Science Fiction is one of the best mediums for showing what a libertarian society might be like and showing the absurdity of most western governments. This one has the added benefit of included lessons learned from terrorism and U.N.'s modus operandi.

Also working my way through The Teutonic Knights - A Military History by William Urban. Though it contains a lot less military than I usually expect from a military history I find it very interesting. I had no idea that there were crusades other than those for in the Holy Lands, much less in the Baltics.

Cool Hot site!

Most of my friends know that I am a big fan of spicy foods. My recent oral surgery when I had to stick to bland food to prevent irritating my sutures was a real trial for me. I just found, don't know what took so long, this blog devoted to hot sauce and hot foods in general. While usually I won't touch chili made outside the southwest and usually just those that have been tested and honored in the Terlingua Chili Cook-off, this recipe for Cincinatti Chili is definitely one I want to try. Though I will avoide the 5-way or beyond which includes beans as that is taboo to real chili.

Why doesn't the media provide map context?

It seems like every media report from Lebanon gives general directions for the location but they don't always mean anything. For instance the latest story about the IDF raid in eastern Lebanon describes it in three versions each picked up by many news sources; 1) They landed 30km east of Baalbeck and drove east to Buday, 2) near Baalbeck in the village of Bodai, and 3) 20 km east of Buday near Baalbeck.

It took me a while to find a web source that could locate Buday, but finally on maplandia.com I did. After mapping both Buday (no Bodai found) nd Baalbeck on Google Earth using the latitude and longitude provided by maplandia I then used GE's Measure tool. Buday is 15km west of Baalbeck and Baalbeck is 10km west of Syria. So the later story was the most correct.

Only a few stories gave additional background such as;

Some say Yazbek, who is a senior member of Hezbollah's Shura consultative council and representative in Lebanon of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in charge of financial grants from Khamenei's office, was seen in the area as recently as Friday.

Yazbek, who is originally from Buday but does not reside in the village, was glimpsed attending the funerals of Hezbollah fighters who were killed during Israel's month long offensive in Lebanon, they say.

Really with the ease and speed of web sources there is no excuse for reporters, or at least their editor when the reporter is in the field, to not check the web for correct locations, place names and other facts.


**** So that's what an Instalanche is! Thanks Glenn! And thanks to all of you who stopped by to read my tiny little blog here. ****

*** Some noted the lack of good online maps for Lebanon. The best I could find was this though it didn't have Buday on it. One thing I did find very intesting about this detailed map were the roads shown. By the zig-zags depicted on some roads I expect some awesome mountainsides are involved. I was less than thrilled with maplandia's display ability but at least it had most sites mentioned listed with Lat/Long data. ***

Hezbollah still uninterested in defending Lebanese

One of the reported goals of Hezbollah is the defense of Lebanon, but by now no one should believe this. Their actions speak far louder than their words. So far the only military actions they have performed are offense missle attacks against Israel that do not differentiate in military or civilian targets. Hezbollah has acted against ground troops but this is completely in it's own defense.

If they were interested in defended Lebanon and the Lebanese they would have been trying their best to shoot down some of the Isreali jets that have bombed targets deep into Lebanon. There has been one report (from Hezbollah) of a SAM shoot, however absolutely no follow up which in real terms means it didn't happen. You know that if Hezbollah had actually shot down an Israeli jet they would have the media crews their lickety split. According to Brian Hoffman, a counterinsurgency expert at Washington's RAND Corp, "...it also had to be assumed Hezbollah had at least some surface-to-air missiles to take out planes, though there have not been any reported uses yet."

Most of us recognize that Hezbollah sees the Israeli bombings in Lebanon as another weapon for Hezbollah, a weapon in the modern media battlefield. For ever bombing that occurs Hezbollah has another opportunity to attract attention with the media of how Israel is killing, wounding or endangering civilians. This has lead them to concentrate on manipulating the media as their likely best weapon and the only one where they seem to have an advantage. But, as it currently appears, if the media stories influences the diplomatic actions then Hezbollah could win the "war" just based on this. So far few media have reported on this Hezbollah weapon, and none have put together what their strategy means as to the defense of Lebanon.

Too weird!

UN observers killed were UNTSO not UNIFIL

I have yet to see any of the reports correct this or the fact that the post was an UNTSO post and not a UNIFIL post. The difference between the two seems to be that UNIFIL is armed and UNTSO is not. There is also a UNTSO media release stating that the fact that the "Patrol Base" and it's men were UNTSO and unarmed.

If you read the email from the Canadian soldier (which many of the reports reference) the first thing he does in the email is introduce himself and states is assignment to UNTSO and it's mission. The reason it matters is UNTSO is yet another, as if we need one, example of how the UN doesn't accomplish anything. UNTSO's mission on it's website is listed as "* To observe and maintain an unconditional cease-fire ordered by the security council, pending the final status peace settlement." and "* To assist the parties in the supervision and observance of the terms of the Armistice Agreements of 1949." Though Major Hess-von Kruedener quotes the mission of his team and OGL (Observer Group Lebanon) as "...to maintain the integrity of theWithdrawal Line (Blue Line), and report on any and all violations or activities that threaten the cease-fire and international peace and security here along the Lebanese/Israeli border, and Israeli Occupied Lebanon, and to support the UNSC resolution 1559, within our mission mandate."

With that mission I would expect their command to recall them once full scale combat broke out between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon. Instead they were left their to "observe". Isn't that the same as left to get shot or bombed? Did their command not care or was this what they hoped for. After all unlike UNIFIL this observers are unarmed and if the post is a UNTSO post likely no one there was armed.

Why in the world would you leave unarmed men in a combat zone? He is quoted as saying "It appears that the lion's share of fighting between the IDF and Hezbollah has taken place in our area." Surely they reported this to their command structure? If so, again why would their commander leave them in the principle hot zone in a major combat effort?

If their mission was to monitor the cease fire/truce and that had obviously ended, why keep them in the field?

Iraqi politicians continue to show their independence

Yet another Iraqi politician has decided to distance himself from the U.S.. The speaker of the Iraqi parliament, Mahmoud al-Mashhadani a Sunni Islamist, spoke before the UN sponsored conference and likened U.S actions in Iraq to "butchery". The conference sponsored by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) was on the subject of transitional justice and national reconciliation and was meant to support the government efforts.

He was quoted by Al Jazeera as saying "If a reconciliation project is going to work it has to talk to all the people. It must go through our Iraqi beliefs and perceptions. What we need is reconciliation between Iraqis only, there can be no third party." He then related an anecdote about how American soldiers keep people waiting in lines at checkpoints for hours because they insist on resting their bomb-sniffing dogs. "The sleep of American dogs is more important than people being stopped in the street for hours," he said.

The UN host called his speech "spirited".

Frigging great Pepsi commercial

This ad rocks! Britney does better than expected, Beyonce just has to clear and smooth a voice for this rock anthem. But Pink! Holy moly, she kicks butt! Wish she would record this!


The Pepsi Gladiators - video powered by Metacafe

Did BBC just recognize that their reporters statements are opinions?

This article from the BBC on current state of events in Israel includes this paragraph;

The Israeli leader must choose between going ahead with military action that would endanger the life of the captured soldier or risk being seen as weak, says the BBC's Jon Leyne in Jerusalem.

There are no quotes around the statement, but the way it is seperated and includes the name of the person making the statement makes it appear like they are quoting a spokesman. Is this a way to implicitly show that they recognizes that their own reporters statements are opinions? I hope so but won't count on it.

Singapore caught in sex=courtesy cycle

This article reports that they have figured out why they are the fifth least courteous city, it's because they don't get enough sex!. For thirty years the government has sponsored campaigns to get people to be more courteous. The article's author suggests that they should just tell people to have more sex!

However I think that his logic is incomplete, but since he does not provide full references to the surveys I can't be sure. The opening sentence is "IF it's not bad enough that Singaporeans are the second worst lovers in the world, apparently we are also the fifth least courteous people in the world, according to Reader's Digest." I found the Reader's Digest survey on courtesy here. I am not sure how to take it given that it show's New York got the highest rating (80) while Paris fell in the middle of the pack with 57, the same as London. I would love to see a comparison of US cities (New York was only US city on survey).

Apparently the survey he is referencing for "...second worst lovers..." is this one from Durex that shows in 2005 Singapore men and women reporting having sex on average 73 times a year, down from 79 in 2004 and 96 in 2003. I can't find anywhere in the survey where they rated sex, so I guess this author believes that quantity equals quality or maybe that lack of quality equals lack of quantity. Singapore comes in seventh on age at which first had sex (18.4 in a range of 15.6, Iceland to 19.8, India with a global average of 17.3).

There is a section on Views on Sex, but it seems like Singapore comes in around average for; a) I'm happy with my sex life (44 average, Singapore 42), b) I wish I had sex more frequently (36 average, Singapore 42), and c) My sex life is monotonous (44 average, Singapore 42) . One would think given how low on the list of frequency they stand that more would want sex more often, but their number is quite a bit below average. For comparison the US is 52, 45, and 9 on this three questions and 113 times a year.

I would say that there may be a link of less sex causes less courtesy which leads to less sex and so on.

Confusing report from Environmentalists

A new report (or should I say a repackaged report?) from environmentalists (I won't call them scientists) states;
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The last few decades were the warmest on Earth in the past 400 years, and may well have been warmer than any comparable period since the Middle Ages, U.S. scientists reported on Thursday.

Gee, like we didn't know that at times it has been both colder and warmer than it is today. But later the message gets more confusing.

First they have to restate the facts (actually their opinion)

The scientists also noted that temperature reconstructions for periods before the Industrial Revolution -- when levels of climate-warming greenhouse gases were much lower -- supported the notion the current global climate change was caused by human activities, rather than natural variations in climate.

But this guy actually comes out an tells the truth (emphasis is mine).

"Natural climate variability is something that we'd like to know about," said Kurt Cuffey of the University of California-Berkeley, who served on the council's committee and spoke at a Webcast about the report.

"But if we did know for example that the climate was as warm at 1000 AD as it is now, it would have no essential impact on our understanding of climate change in the 20th century, the role of humans in causing it and the need to think seriously about how that may evolve in the next few centuries," he said.

So no matter if the evidence says that it has been warmer at times in the past before the Industrial age it won't change their understanding (read opinion)!

La Familia Aguilar

A friend from work who attended the Farewell concert of the La Familia Aguilar last night reported that he incorporated the May Day protests into his act. Joking that his horse was from Mexico and was here to march (this to setup the horse to march around the stage) and when he said this the audience burst into enthusiastic applause. However a few minutes later when he got serious and encouraged the audience to remember what America had done for them, calling out "Viva Los Estados Unidos de América" the audience gave a more polite applause, with the exception of those citizens like Ana and her family who jumped to their feet.

I have searched and searched and can find no mention of this. Apparently La Familia Aguilar is a very well respected and loved musical and rodeo family (they have dancing horses) and it would be nice if this kind of statement about the feeling of Mexican immigrants (legal ones) was given a wider audience.

Update on books read

The Atrocity Archives - Charles Stross
I think if you asked Dilbert to write a thriller based on magic this would be it. After a while the sheer ludicrous nature of most of what is going on just fades into background because the story and characters are so enjoyable. A must read for any Dilbert fan.

In Fury Born - David Weber
This is a re-release which I read the first time round, but since it has been almost fifteen years since then I had to get it to read again. This was written about the time of the first Honor Harrington book and in many ways is similar with a strong woman heroine and a sidekick. But in this case the sidekick can not only talk but recides in the heroines head so providing insight into what she feels comes as a matter of course.

The Complete Hammer's Slammers, Volume 1 - David Drake
Another old favorite that has been combined several stories in re-release. David Drake and Jerry Pournelle are what I consider to be the godfathers of military SF. If you like Eric Flint, David Weber, or John Ringo then this is a must read.

Engaging The Enemy - Elizabeth Moon
This is the third in the Kylara Vatta series. The universe is similar to the Liaden Universe of Sharon Lee and Steve Miller, but pure science. The characters are family structures are similar to her Familias Regnant series, but universe is very Balkanized. Unlike most SF there is no star empire or even any powerful star nations. It calls for some interesting problems and solutions and even more problems with the solutions. Very enjoyable.

Crystal Dragon - Sharon Lee & Steve Miller
This is in the prequel series (the second in the Great Migration Duology) to the Liaden Universe and helps to understand the more exoteric portions of the later series. A bit short but still very worth reading.

Boundary - Eric Flint & Ryk E. Spoor
The characters are similar to those used by John Ringo in Into the Looking Glass and Travis Taylor's Warp Speed and The Quantum Connection, that is smart and capable men and women. Also similarly these smart capable people are drawn into something entirely beyond what they expected and excel at it. Does remind me of the first in the Grey Lensman books a little.

Mourning Dove - Aimee & David Thurlo
This is the umpteenth (ok, 12th) in the Ella Clah series and holds up very well. Sticks close to the formula of the rest and consequenly is very enjoyable. A very worth successor to Tony Hillerman.

LAX Times shows their class (or lack there of)

From the media who is too sensative to show you the cartoons that the Muslims dislike comes this display of one of our troops. I am at a lose for words to describe what I think of the reporter and editors who chose to use this picture! I find the media's need to go invade people's privacy to either sale papers, feed the public's need for emotions or just support their own viewpoint to be beyond any possible sort of decency!



P.S. Now would be a good time to show your appreciation of the troops and their dedication to duty and freedom!

The media and polls

When I was younger I worked as an assistant manager at a fast food chain on evening shift. After cleaning up a few of us would stick around and just talk. One of the guys was from a religious family and when he was a kid they lived in Africa where his parents taught at a mission school. He bragged that they taught all religions there, but that all their students selected their religion as they one to follow. He felt that this proved that his religion (I don't remember for sure, but I think he was Baptist) was the right one. He could never understand why I thought it didn't prove anything but that their students liked them or what the school provided.

Recent media stories on the War in Iraq is failing based on polls reminded me of this guy. I wonder if he works for the Washington Post or CBS now? This comic today from Winger says it best;


By the way, why are we still calling this the War in Iraq? Isn't this more of a Police Action than Vietnam or Korea?

Free market approach to bus service

I was overjoyed to see this article which provides good example of how a libertarian society could solve some of our real life difficulties could work.  Many people reject the idea of relinquishing city services to private ownership or even just to policies used in business because they just cannot envision how they could work.  The problem is that we cannot foresee the way ingenuity can conquer problems.  These kinds of stories are a very good thing in that they make the unimaginable something that people can wrap the brains around.

Ginsburg speaks out for interpreting U.S. law based on the laws of other countries

I really don’t understand how judges get selected or elected when they believe in something as dangerous as interpreting U.S. law by considering foreign law. While I am sure that there are some foreign laws that some people in the U.S. would like to see here, if this gets accepted for general use in the U.S. how do you prevent this from abuse?

The basis of our government is that we are a nation of laws and not subject to the whimsy of man. This was to prevent capricious abuse by kings and other hereditary rulers from mandating our lives based on their own wants and beliefs. But what happens if our judges get to use foreign law as a “…store of knowledge relevant to the solution of trying question.”? This is just another means of trying to make our constitution and laws bend to enactment from the bench rather than the elective representatives of the people.

While these, usually liberal, interpreters of the law maybe very happy with the results as long as they are in power, how will they feel if this becomes the basis for interpreting U.S. law based on the muslim law of Sharia or some other repressive countries of the world?

I am not really surprised that this has riled some of the crazies to target those justices who represent this view, though I do not support such actions. How can such a view that skews our laws not stir the passions of Americans? I hope that this becomes an issue in the elections of all U.S. elected officers over the coming years. We face enough enemies to our way of life without creating our own.

A religious "two-fer"

This may actually be a good thing, though I am not convinced of the science behind the need to preserve bio-diversity.  But at least this way we are getting a “two-fer”, using the same property for both the religion of the locals and the religion of “bio-diversity” and Gaia.

Another defeat for red-light cameras!

Here is yet another win for the Everyman, (Everyperson?).  I think, hope, as more people catch on to the fact that red-light cameras are more of a means for cities to try and get more revenue than to try and protect the people that these will disappear faster than they are introduced.

A new play toy for "Q" the future of warfare

I am sure that “Q” would love this, though James Bond would want it to have a cockpit so he could fly it.  The future of UAVs looks to be very exciting and combining it with Trident submarines is very cool!  I can envision converting several of these submarines, no longer needed for nuclear deterrent to use as Special Forces platforms.  They could be the base for Navy Seal Teams with air support provided by these Cormorants and heavy artillery provided by vertically launched cruise-missiles.  This would provide a really quick response team with some awesome combat capabilities.

Ambivalent about the Dixie Chicks

I have enjoyed the Dixie Chicks for quite some time.  One of my favorite of their songs is “Good-bye Earl”, I just loved the dark comedy of it.  However like many I have become distinctly ambivalent towards them since Natalie decided to inject politics into their public image.  Now I heard that, according to Natalie, they don’t even want to be “county” anymore I don’t have very high hopes for my enjoyment of any future titles they release.  

I am not sure about getting their latest album “Taking the Long Way”, I read a pre-release review that stated “Songs look at small-town narrow-mindedness ("Lubbock or Leave It") and the psychology of celebrity ("Everybody Knows"). “   My mom was from Lubbock and I spent many a summer growing up their visiting her folks.  I certainly never thought of Lubbock as a small-town, maybe a small city.  I have to hope that it was the reviewer that attached the “small-town” moniker on Lubbock and not the Chicks.  Though if so I have to wonder at a country music writer who doesn’t know the difference between the two.

I am getting used to the need to separate my feelings about the artist themselves, and their political views, from my enjoyment of their performance.  I am a great fan of Janeane Garafalo, but hate her politics.  I wish that all performers would quit trying to use their popularity to sell a view point, but I am coming to accept that that is just life as we know it now.

Let's hear it for Amazon's penchant for showing alternatives to your current selection

I have found a lot of good music that I ordinarily would not have known of by following Amazon's recommendations and links to purchases made by other buyers of the particular CD I am ordering at the time. I have also found some good books this way but don't normally try it for selecting DVDs.

I bought the first season of Grey's Anatomy and apparently this drove a link to Wish Upon a Star which also has Katerine Heigl in it. Normally if I had just read the story description I would have given this a pass. However this time I read an Amazon buyer's review that convinced me (along with the price tag of $6.99) that this might be worthwhile. So in today's shipment from Amazon along with Doom the movie (Ok, so it probably stinks but I am a SF nut!) came Wish Upon a Star and I popped it in the player.The first half of the movie was pretty predictable though it was interesting to see a younger, brunette, Heigl. But the last half made up for it in being much less predictable and just plain fun.

Latest Books Read

The Merchant’s Partner – Michael Jecks
This one was not easy to figure out and the action was sort of uneven. I enjoyed but not enourmously.

Traitor General – Dan Abnet
I only got about a third of the way through before I had to put it down. I guess the Warhammer 40,000 universe is not for me, waaayy tooo dark.

The Cat Who Dropped a Bombshell – Lilian Jackson Braun
Another light mystery story so much like all the rest of the The Cat Who... series. The characters stay facinating so I don't intend to stop reading them any time soon.

Kildar - John Ringo
Ringo has turned into one of my favorite authors, but this book was a bit of a disappointement. I enjoyed Ghost, the first in theseries, quite a bit. But with this one I believe that Ringo got so wrapped up in creating this fantasy world that he forget that it needed to be more than just an intellectual exercise. There is little action in this book, most of it is the details of building the Kildar's new home and telling the background of the Keldara.

I hope this doesn't become like Leo Frankowski's novels which became more of a intellectual masturbatory fantasy than an action series. I would have preferred a longer novel with more action or less details of building up the valley what ever it takes to provide more balance in the book.

Hopefully now that he has developed the vallery of the Keldara the next novel, Chooser of the Slain, will be more on a par with Ghost.

Princess of Wands - John Ringo
Case in point, this book kicks ass. I am a bit tired of so many SF and Fantasy novels that feature women as the action hero, but so long as the are all this good I will never stop reading them. It is also is a better magic in the real world story than any of the Buffy books or movies. I think it is as good as the Dresden Files series by Jim Butcher and better than Simon Green's Nightside series.

Sour Puss - Rita Mae Brown
This one was a bit too easy to figure out which eventually made the denoumout turn a bit sour as well. But again, this is a series I read for the characters more than the story line.

How to identify parody on the internet?

I ran across this article on the "Scoop Independent News" website while searching for Casey's gravesite location. After reading it became fairly obvious it is a parody, however for much of the world, particularly the Middle East, they may not be able to tell that. After I thought about it for awhile I realized that a lot of people in the U.S. that either don't pay attention to the news or just certain sites may also not get that this article is not and could not be true.

So I did a search for "riding across the symbolic gravesite of Casey Sheehan" on Google and found 22 postings. This same story was repeated on www.SQLSpace.com "No Censorship Zone", the Inbox Robot - A News Service for Research Professionals, blondesense.blogspot.com, www.gregpalast.com (the story's author), www.freepress.org, www.opednews.com,sf.indymedia.org, www.maavak.net, www.apfn.net/messageboard, peaceandjustice.org, carapace.weblogs.us (Not Your Father's America), illuminati-news.com, www.legitgov.org, and a commetator on www.astroworld.us. Not a single site reported this as a parody and in fact most sites were made to look like real news sites. So exactly how many people are being fooled by such "reporting" on these sites?

No headstone for Casey?

I haven't corroborated this yet, but SMASH is usually a pretty good source. I would certainly say that there was been more than enough time, 2 years, to get a marker of some kind put on his grave.


This site (seems to be Cindy's site) purports to show the temporary wooden cross on Casey's grave in "Arlington West" cemetary on August 23, 2005." However this seems to be the symbolic grave site set up in Crawford at "Camp Casey".


This is the original site of the photo SMASH uses and the blogger on that site claims to have received the photo from a Vacaville reporter. Also includes a post stating that she hasn't had time to get a marker.

Meanwhile posters, rather loud posters, on the Randi Rhodes show forum claim that she has no marker because all markers at Arlington National Cemetary for Iraq and Afghanistan veterans are government provided and come with a motto that she does not approve of. Consequently she decided to go with the plain wooden marker.



However Vanity Fair and the New Republic both state that the gravesite is in Vacaville-Elimira cemetary in the photo a photo is included in Vanity Fair's January 2006 issue for the magazine's 2005 Best of the Best -- "Heroes! Winners! Guilty Plea.

So take your pick; a) Cindy hasn't had time to get a marker, b)Casey is buried in two different places, c) Cindy doesn't know she can buy the marker herself, or d) Cindy has spend all the the $250,000 dollar insurance payout from the government and is too cheap to buy one and won't accept the government provided marker

AP Demonstrates Their Definition of Clear Reporting

I ran across this article today by the AP reporting on Cindy Shehaan’s latest stunt. The portion of the article I have a problem with is this one sentence, “The march to the U.S. Mission to the United Nations by about a dozen U.S. and Iraqi anti-war activists followed a news conference at U.N. headquarters, where Iraqi women described daily killings and ambulance bombings as part of the escalating violence that keeps women in their homes.” If you are reporting what a group says of anti-war activists are saying you would think the complaints would be against the US. Thus this sentence seems to be saying that the US is committing daily killings and ambulance bombings wouldn’t it? I searched the web for ambulance bombings and can find no reference to it except in the use of ambulances as suicide bombs. However I did run across this gem on the Codepink web pages of Women Say No to War, “Cindy Sheehan with Iraqi Delegates at the Women Say NO to War press conference. Iraqi women described daily killings and ambulance bombings as part of the escalating violence that keeps women in their homes.” See any similarities? I wonder who is copying whom here?

While checking on this I ran across a statement of goals on the Code Pink web site. This is obviously the work of a committee and one that doesn’t care if their message makes much sense. While mandating the elimination of foreign control (withdrawal of all foreign troops and fighters, commitment to discard plans for any foreign bases in Iraq, etc.) it also calls for an imposed “full representation” of women in the peacemaking (making how?) process and a commitment to women’s full equality in the post-Iraq war. Ok how exactly would the later be done if the former is done? If all foreign nations remove themselves from Iraq then how can you insure the role of women if the Iraqis don’t want it?

Also I am not sure why this goal made it into the list “The nullification of privatization and deregulation laws imposed under occupation, allowing Iraqis to shape the trajectory of the post-war economy;” Are there some socialists are anti-capitalists in the group who are against private ownership?

Scalzi's The Ghost Brigades

I just finished John Scalzi’s latest novel The Ghost Brigades. It fulfilled the promise of his first, Old Man’s War, and more. At first I found the secondary issue of Boutin’s consciousness as an irritant to the general story line, but I believed that he would eventually become important and of course it did.

The climax of the story when the villain explained his reasons for his villainy was pretty poignant. I think that it is an excellent example of how people who only have part of the reasons why government does things can be so sure that they have a better way and then go to extremes that they would heartily denounce in others to try and implement their own world view.

Yes, I am tip toeing around the details to give my impressions without giving away the story, but what it comes down to this an excellent novel.

Germany surrenders to Terrorists

This story from the StrategyPage points out the silliness of the European left.

WHO WINS:  German Court Backs Terrorist Tactics
  
February 20, 2006: A German court ruled that a hijacked aircraft could not be shot down to prevent it from crashing into a stadium full of people. The court said that the rights of the passengers on the hijacked aircraft took priority over attempts to prevent greater loss of life in the stadium. The ruling came as Germany was organizing security for the soccer world cup. There will be a no-fly zone over the stadiums, but because of this ruling, the fighter jets patrolling the air space will not be allowed to shoot down aircraft threatening the thousands of people in a stadium. The games will be played, in twelve different stadiums, between June 9 and July 9. Germany will try to come up with another way to stop a hijacked aircraft, or seek another legal solution to the prohibition on shooting down attacking aircraft.

Cities creating Police State in the US

It doesn’t take a dictatorship to implement oppressive laws or implement a police state.  The very fact that a Police Chief in a major US city could think it was a good idea and not see how requiring surveillance cameras could affect privacy is ludicrous!  These city officials must think that they are in England!

TV Programming needs to grow up

TV Programming needs to move faster.  The major networks are just starting to catch on that a 20-26 episode schedule September to May is not the only profitable schedule any more.  Notice the season premieres that are beginning to show up for summer and spring in response to cable’s non-traditional scheduling.  

However there is one tradition I wish they would reconsider soon and there is some evidence in favor of changing if they pay attention.  I am speaking about special event night programming.  Ever since I can remember (yes, they had TV when I was a kid) when certain major events were on the channels not carrying it would schedule repeats or low budget specials.  Like for the next few weeks while the Olympics are on NBC we can look forward to a long run of repeats on ABC, CBS, UPN, Fox, etc.

But, if they look at what happened this week on Grammy night, they might find reasons to try something different.  American Idol beat the Grammys in viewers by 28 million to 15 million.  Now media stories are all about how the Grammys have been loosing viewers, we see the same stories about Monday Night Football, the Presidential conventions, Miss America and almost every other traditional show.  What they don’t seem to understand is that these events were always more entertainment than interesting.  Now that people have choices even if they aren’t great, they turn to other shows.  

If the TV networks would try to capture some audience away from events like the Olympics or The Academy Awards they might be more successful than they would expect.  But, and here’s the kicker, they then have to accept that their view of what’s important in the world may not prove to be reality!

First Mystery Novel Heroine who is a Blogger?!?

I just finished J.A. Jance’s latest Edge of Evil in which the heroine becomes a blogger and solves a murder. Throughout the story she learns the ins and outs of blogging as well as overcoming some of life’s biggest challenges.

Books on top of my reading pile

Books on top of my reading pile

The Merchant’s Partner – Michael Jecks
     Another in the Knights Templar Mystery series.

Edge Of Evil – J.A. Jance
     A mystery by the author of two of my favorite mystery series, Joanna Brady Mysteries and J.P. Beaumont Mysteries.

The Star Tablet – Jay Caselberg
     The next in the Psychic Investigators series

Traitor General – Dan Abnet
     A novel in the Warhammer 40,000 world

The Cat Who Dropped a Bombshell – Lilian Jackson Braun
     The latest Cat Who mystery

Books

Books

After a bit of a dry spell I have run into several books that I have enjoyed and thought I would post about them.  Here are the books that I have read recently (last two weeks);

Blackcollar – Timothy Zahn
     This is a good SF adventure book, not deep, but thoroughly enjoyable.  The general scenario is that Earth was defeated in a war after establishing a limited multi-star nation.   Their conquerors are the typical barbarians who have succeeded by using ruthless tactics and using technology taken from their victims.  The key to the story is that one of the Humans greatest weapons in the war was their Blackcollars.  Basically they are a combination Navy Seal and Ninja but greatly enhanced based on advanced drug treatment akin to a super-steriod.  A generation after the war the resistance begins to fight back at the same time that the Ryqril are hampered by another war of conquest.  Looks to be the first in a multiple book series that I will look forward to enjoying as they are released.

Starship: Mutiny – Mike Resnick
     More along the lines of a space opera somewhat like the Retief series by Keith Laumer or the Sten series by Allan Cole and Chris Bunch.  Again very enjoyable and the story has enough twists too it to keep you on your feet.  The story is about a hero who was too good and his superiors have decided to get him out of the way, and out of the war, by assigning him to a worn out old warship with a crew full of rejects in the backwaters of space.  Another starting book in what looks to be a thoroughly entertaining series.

Rebel Ice – S.L. Viehl
     This is the latest in the Stardoc series and a bit of a diversion from the main story.  The heroine has suffered amnesia after surviving a spaceship crash on an ice world.  Caught in the middle of a rebellion against the lords who rule the planet she, and her friends, become key players in the rebellion.  This story keeps the series fresh and provides a few clues into the main story line of the series without actually providing a major step in the series major war between the Human League and the Jorenian Clans.

Against All Enemies – John G. Henry
     The latest in SF’s answer to JAG, this series follows a naval officer who through his duties as the ship’s legal officer gets involved in one major legal issue after another.  The latest involves a spy among his own shipmates.  Each book has a bit of action and more than a bit of legal maneuvering and this one has followed that formula well.

The Last Templar – Michael Jecks
     While this series has been around for a while it just now came to my attention.  This book is the first in the Knights Templar Mystery series and introduces Simon Puttock, a knight in England who has just been promoted to bailiff of Lydford Castle.  He quickly meets an unusual group of months and their abbot, a knight recently returned to England from abroad to assume his inheritance of land, and not one, not two but several murders.  A good mix of crime solving and adventure which has hooked me on the series which I mean to start my way through the rest (well over a dozen published to date).

Strong Arm Tactics, The Wolf Pack: Book I – Jody Lynn Nye
     This book is an obvious homage to Robert Aspirin’s Phule series though with less of Pfule’s outright outrageous events it certainly retains many of the same outrageously funny events and tactics.  Like Pfule, Wolf has set out to prove himself and do something good by joining the military, though he is very wealthy and comes from a powerful family.  Though his family’s power and wealth comes from a darker source, more of a 31st century mafia.  It was enjoyable, fun, and again has me hooked on the series.  

By Order of the President – W.E.B Griffin (Presidential Agent I)
The Hostage – W.E.B. Griffin (Presidential Agent II)

     I missed this when it first came out but when I ran across the next in the series I grabbed this one to read first.  It follows the same formula of the rest of Griffin’s books though in a modern day times and stories.  The main character is the son of two wealthy and respected families, one Tex-Mex and the other German, who has joined the Army in the tradition of his ancestors on both sides of the family tree.  We visit two of Griffin’s favorite regions, Germany and Argentina, and like many of his heroes Carlos Castillo/Karl von und zu Gossinger is not hesitant to use his family, friends and money to help complete his mission.  Another excellent series that will be on my “buy on publication date” watch on Amazon.

A Long Shadow – Charles Todd
     The latest in the Ian Rutledge Mystery series it follows the normal formula well, though I am starting to tire of “Hamish”.   The series is set in England after World War I, Ian was an officer on the front and not only was wounded physically but emotionally as well.  He carries with him the “ghost” of a soldier he had executed for cowardice on the battlefield.  Hamish is always right over his shoulder whispering both helpful hints, complaints as well as outright whiny comments.  This story is a bit more complicated than previous novels in the series in that besides having a difficult case to solve that involves solving other older cases that are the key to the current one, dealing with avoiding traps and virtual landmines left by his superior, he also is being stalked by someone from the war that seems to want him dead.

Nothing But Trouble – Michael McGarrity
     The latest in the Kevin Kearney series this book provides a bit more of his wife Sara’s story than previous books.  Kevin is getting close to retirement from his position as Santa Fe’s Chief of Police and is convinced by and old, but not so close any more, friend to act as the technical consultant on a film being shot in New Mexico’s Bootheel area.  Of course the film becomes another source to get him involved in solving crimes that have nothing to do with Santa Fe.  Meanwhile his wife as a case of her own with enough political explosive to blow her career out of the water.  Nice story, but more low key than most of McGarrity’s it leaves me wondering where Kearney and Sara will end up next.

Well as you can see I have spent a good deal of time reading lately, though given that I tend to read a book through until done rather than putting it aside to do such boring things as sleeping it didn’t take me long.  Next I will post the books on the top of my reading pile and afterwards will provide my thoughts.

Failed Economics but passed Bible School

Failed Economics but passed Bible School

A woman in Olathe, KS has decided that Spencer’s Gifts should be treated as an adult store even though it does not meet the city specification as to percentage of sales from adult products to be designated as such.  She was offended by some pictures that she saw, that I am sure are no worse than what Playboy or what ever has in everyday book stores.  Jerry Agar on the local talk radio spent some time this afternoon speaking about the issue.  There were plenty of women who called in to say they were offended by the products Spencer’s carried and embarrassed.  Jerry tried to steer the middle path saying that the woman who went to City Halls said she is not trying to shut down Spencer’s just get it treated like an adult business.  That’s like saying that you don’t want to treat someone as a criminal just as a drug addict.  Most cities treat adult businesses as if they were breeding grounds for anthrax.  They can only operate in certain parts of the city far removed from anything but warehouses and such all of which are a long way away from malls where Spencer’s Gifts are usually located.  Course these are the same people that don’t like the KY Warming Ultra Gel TV commercials.

So I ask; Why do these people always go to city hall first rather than trying to use the power of the consumer?  Try boycotting the store, ask your friends to get together to write to the headquarters to change their product line, do something without trying to add yet another law to our staggering load we have now!  

Suspended for kissing?

I think about 25% or more of my school would have been suspended when I was in 8th grade if they had these rules. The kid didn't even initiate the kiss. A girl kissed him on a dare (it is the 8th grade after all) and he is suspended for not snitching on her. Jeez!

Looking for Comedy in the Muslim World

I like Albert Brooks and this movie looks like it might be funny and timely.  At least the trailer was interesting.  Likely won’t be a big hit but should be enjoyable.

This was posted and then edited to add this sentence using the Blogger for Word add-in.

Honor Harrington movie or TV series?

It seems that rumors are out that the long anticipated movie based on David Weber's Honor Harrington series may actually be moving towards reality. I also noted that there is a Hollywood.com posting for the movie with producers names who have at least some films to their credit. I don't know how long this has been up, it also lists Peter Sands (Ayn Rand, The Happy Valley, Diamond Skulls, The Secret Adventures of Jules Verne - two episodes) as the Screenplay writer, Victoria Burrows (all three Lord of the Rings, Hostage, King Kong and Polar Express) as Casting Director and Tom Meleck (Brainstorm-1983, Drive, In Enemy Hands, an episode of Quantum Leap and Across the Tracks) as Production Designer.

However Peter Sands bio on IMDB and VisionFire states that it will be a TV series which means most the names being bandied about to play Honor probably won't be available for such a long commitment. Though this was caught first by whoever edited the Wikipedia entry for Honor Harrington and it's clones.

There has been an ongoing debate as to who should play Honor in the movie, we should probably now turn out thoughts to who would play her on TV. Most of the ones I have heard suggested for the movie probably would not commit to a TV series as it is a much longer commitment that most screen actresses would steer away from.

Maybe Michelle Lintel (Black Scorpion)





























or Shannon Elizabeth (yes her!)


























or Robia LaMorte though at 5'6" she may be too short

























A popular vote in poll for playing Honor in the movie is Claudia Black who I agree would be good, but I think is a little too old (certainly not old, but for the role) given the perceived youth of prolong receipients (you have to read the books)







































Another choice from the movie poll that would be good but too short is Kristen Kreuk
































An excellent Honor that might be talked into going back to TV, though also in the too short category, is Jessica Alba




























Though I would love to see Charisma Carpenter as Honor!


























A vote from the movie poll that would be a good possiblity for TV is Lexa Doig (Andromeda) though also too short

Biodiesel problems

This story seems to imply that there are problems with the biodiesel blend being mandated in MN. However they talk about a possible problem with too much glycerin and the blend is only two percent biodiesel. This seems like they are just trying to pay lip service to the advantages of biodiesel. Usually the lowest blend is B20 (20% biodiesel) and glycerin is a by product of making biodiesel so if there is too much it sounds like the processing is incomplete.

England - Big brother Poster Child

If you can't prevent crime you can at least get the (second) best technology to play with! I wonder if this will really affect their arrest rate. Course it means millions of hours of video added to all those millions of hours they already have with cameras all through their cities.

Scotland - How far you have fallen!

I would hate to thing what The Bruce would think of this. Come to think of it, no I would love to see what he would do in this situation!

Maryland - Poster child of the Nanny State

So not only is the guy that steals your car a criminal you can be one too! Not only a fine but a point just for being a normal human being in the freezing weather!

Second Hand smoke study

Any city thinking about enacting new restrictions on smoking ought to do a similar study as it should open their eyes to the real situation. Thank you St. Louis!

New DVDs

I just finished watching the latest set of new release DVDs from Amazon. Just what I needed to help relax this week.

The Brothers Grimm - Nice take off on the old fairy tales. Kept me interested and wasn't as straight forward as I was afraid it might be.

Must Love Dogs - As touching as expected, excellently acted and hit just the right mood. I do wonder about how often the movies show actors living a comfortable life (compared to most) with no means of support.

Serenity - What can I say. Just pure Joss Whedon, I didn't get to see it more than once when it was on the big screen, though this plays much better on the big screen. It just has that feel that begs for a scree 20' tall to match the story and the characters. I really enjoyed the deleted scenes and there were a few I really wish had been left in the movie. Specially the last with the Operative where Mal walks away saying "What a whiner."

Actors at Fort Polk

This rather amusing but informative posting describes how actors help in Fort Polk war games or should I say terrorist games?

Top Ten: NY TWU striker another reason to...

This posting by Instapundit reader Robert Brunham that the strike is just another reason not to live in a high density city lead me to come up with the following top ten.

Not only is the TWU strike another reason not to live in a big city, it is also;

1. ...another reason not to implement mass transit in cities that don't have it.

2. ...another reason not to expand mass transit in cities that have entered the game.

3. ...another reason why we won't replace cars.

4. ...another reason why unions are loosing favor in all but government jobs.

5. ...another reason not to trust other government unions, as if you needed another, like the teachers union.

6. ...another reason to expand telecommuting.

7. ...another reason to look for a job in the suburbs.

8. ...another reason to live in the south, at least if you have to walk to work, daycare, school, etc., it's not 2º.

9. ...another reason to get that Segway for Christmas.

10. ...and finally, another reason to leave town for the holidays.

As this posting points out this strike is a battle of the have-nots versus the have-nots.

I found the TWU strike plans on Local 100's blog site to be a hoot. After all, everyone knows this strike is all about the public's safety! And it is to insure the public is safe and management doesn't try any tricks that the union will insure the buses and trains stay shut down during the strike!

This quote is just so touching, of course I am sure the public will cheer those picketers on;

"To our riders, we ask for your understanding and forbearance.

We stood with you to keep token booths open, to keep conductors on the train, and to oppose fare hikes.

We now ask that you stand with us. "

Just Because

The father of a slain soldier tells why his son died.

Blindness

I had of those interesting conversations tonight that always catches you off guard, or maybe just me. I was having dinner with two colleagues from work and one, knowing of course I would disagree, brought up gun control. I am always surprised when well-educated people take a position such as we ought to get rid of all guns. The idea that we could actually get rid of ALL guns is a fantasy, was pretty much my exact words. We can't even keep out drugs, another ridiculous idea, why would you think we can keep out guns.

I raised the idea that even if you COULD get rid of all guns and keep them out, the criminals (or those of us who believe in self defense) could always build guns. His reply was something about preventing them from getting the materials to build guns. Ok, there go plumbing supply stores, hardware stores, etc.. He actually acted surprised to hear you don't need a license to own a gun. He also seemed a bit stumped that the police will admit they can't prevent violence, only arrest the perpetrator after the fact.

I decided to check out what was the latest on the web on the subject and ran across this gem! San Francisco, in their own fantasy world for years, has decided to outlaw ban guns citywide. This in a city where 74 out of 94 murders this year are unsolved. This quote from a representative from Second Amendment Foundation was great; "Supervisor Chris Daly, the gun ban's sponsor and biggest advocate, says he will introduce a city charter amendment to create a homicide prevention council. They're going to draft a plan to reduce homicides. Yeah, like that's going to stop San Francisco thugs from murdering people."

When was the last time a government plan ever had anything but the opposite affect?

Something you may not have thought about

Most people when considering environmental issues may think in vague terms about costs. Usually however, as happened to me yesterday, when you bring up the costs in millions or billions the association is made to other parts or the total of the US government budget. This article though brings home what enviromental regulations are costing YOU in the form of wages. I would love to see one that adds share of taxes (state, local and federal) to this to give you an idea of the total cost to the individual of these "green" regulations.

The Agitator full of news (mostly bad) on our freedoms

The Agitator has done an excellent job of pointing to many articles around the web telling of the erosion of our freedoms. I would like to take a minute to point a few out to my friends.

Pot leads to HIV?! Ok follow the bounding ball; smoke, get stone, unprotected sex, HIV. Stupid is as stupid does! Good blog, I immediately added DARE Generation to my must read list of blogs!

Congress has so lost track of what their constitutional duties. They need to sit down and read Davy Crockett

One of the things that people who support the War on Drugs forget is the cost the innocent pay.

Parsley can be illegal?

Would you like a .357 with that pie sir?

If you haven't heard of Cory Maye you ought to.

If you have lived or visited DC you know jaywalking is just something everyone does. However this is first I have heard that ticketing someone for jaywalking is the DC police first response for an elderly man lying near death in the street!

Leave your mediation behind if you plan on heading to South Padre Island.

Mudville Gazette gives a wider view of support for the war

The ever knowledgeable Mudville Gazette gives a good round up of how our international partners seems to have a better understanding of the situation in Iraq that some of our politicians. Try a few of these articles.

Particularly this one of a recent poll that reports when asked what is a priority for the new government only 10% indicated withdrawal of US troops.

Iraq asks Japan to stay the course and Japan answers with a second by Australia.

Even Denmark understands why support the new Iraq government with troops is important.

US residents from India are illegal says Indian diplomat!

Where I work about 40-50% of the programmers are from India and I am sure they would be very surprised to hear that India feels that they are living in the US illegally! Hat tip to Albion's Seedlings

Biodiesel

Here's one for those NIMBY opponents of biodiesel plants from Glenville MN.

Another new plant is planned for outside of Humboldt TN.

Thank a soldier week - Dec 19-25

What ever you are doing in the coming days take a minute or two to go by and leave a message for our soldiers, marines, airmen, and sailors away from home during the holidays.

Great sites to find good Holiday gifts

If you have having a hard time finding gifts for the holidays here are some sites where I do my window shopping for things I would like to have.

Gizmodo, this site has the latest and greated gadgets and hi-tech gear. If your guy sweats a lot you might want to avoid the iPod underwear! They also have some hi-tech toys for actual kids here too.

Uncrate, this site concentrates on men's fear ranging from clothes, bags, cars, and other manly gadgets.

Hi-Tech Toys, I ran into this TV show the other day and this is their web site.

For coffee lovers try the Coffeegeek.

If you know someone who is going to server our country in the Middle East or just likes to shoot the heck out of things you might try Ranger Joe's.

For you ladies who have a problem with their man leaving the seat up try this.

I visited the brick and mortar site of this store when passing through Montana when I moved to Washington and bought a great patterned sheepskin throw.

I have wanted for some time a really long scarf like Dr. Who wore and haven't found anything until now. I found two sites selling long scarves inspired by the Harry Potter movies, this one looks to have a big backlog, but this one not only has Hogwartz inspired scarves but Dr. Who scarves with no apparent backlog.

If you know a bibliophile here are some great sites; Powells has a great choice of out of publication books. When I lived in North Virginia and needed a technical book Reiter's was always the best place to go and still is.

A few years ago I began collecting old pinups from the '30s and '40s because while sexy they are also light hearted. This is a great site for finding them.

If you want to give your loved ones some of the best grazing for the holidays try The Nut Factory. Their brick and mortar store was just down the highway fro where I lived in Spokane and my co-workers love of the candy accounts for many a visit to my cube at work.

Idiot Hollywood writers, editors, and directors.

I am one of those people who tape all the TV shows I want to watch so I can watch them when I want to (maybe the only one as I have never run into another one who does.) Last week was very light in watchable shows so I taped a few shows that I ordinarily skip one of which was Joey.

The story was about an old flame of Joey's sister being in town and they are doing a scene where this loser and her son get in a competition on who is the smarter and Joey notices that they are exhibiting the exact same mannerisms. Joey turns to her and asks "How long ago did you sleep with Jimmy?", her response "22 years ago", Joey then asks "And how old is Michael?", her response "22 and 9 months".

I went back and checked on tape to make sure I wasn't mistaken and that is exactly what they said. So not only did the writer screw up the dialogue but the director and editors also missed it afterwards. They evidently knew that they needed to add nine months but seemed unclear on to which end of the equation.

Sushi

If you are a fan of sushi this video is hilarious, if however you have never had sushi before, but intend to, don't watch the video.

My role model

When I heard that Hugh Hefner had three girlfriends (Holly, Bridget, and Kendra) that got along and shared him, at the age of 79, I was impressed. But then when reading this interview when I found out he had had SEVEN girlfriends at the time I had to admire the man!

If you thought PETA was extreme, check this bunch out!

I have heard some pretty outrageous statements from PETA equating the killing of animals with the killing of humans. But this group actually thinks that we should go extinct because other species are going extinct now and it is all our fault! If species never went extinct then the dinosaurs and sabertooth tigers and such would still be around. And most of those extinctions (probably on the order of 99%) needed no help from humans.

What is really really sick about this is they are apparently teaching this viewpoint to children. He claims members of the group as young as 10!

As a libertarian I don't advocate locking nuts like this up, but what ever happened to good old shunning?!?

Eco-activists shaded view of the world

I wouldn't really call it looking through rose colored glasses. But activists on the envioronment certainly seem to see all issues through filters. This one is arguing that biodiesel is not the answer as the only way to produce enough of it is to burn off tropical areas, dry out tropical peatlands and plant palms as palm oil is the most efficient oil producing crop. This activity will of course realize carbon into the air which means in the short term (at least in Earth's life cycle it is short) more carbon will be released than saved.

Ok, that presupposes that anyone would be silly enough to make such a massive change to plant palms! It also ignores our ability to increase oil production in other crops. Look at the massive increase in soy production through GM seeds, in 2004 the U.S. had it's largest crop in history at 3.14 billion bushels. This while maintaining herbocide use at 1996 levels and switching to a more environmentally friendly herbicide glyphosate.

If the goal is to maximize oil production there is likely to be big gains in oil efficiencies in crops like soy and canola through selective breeding (as we have done throughout history) or through GM which can lead to rapid increases in a more controlled manner.

The same activists will not even consider nuclear energy as it doesn't meet their view of the world. Though a founding member of Greenpeace, Patrick Moore, is trying to change the public's view on this.

Biodiesel emissions

I was recently asked about how biodiesel does on reducing emissions. While my interests is more on alternatives to petroleum I looked into it. I have found the following ;

From Encarta;
In 1997 the Veggie Van, a small motor home powered by a diesel motor that runs on a fuel made from used and new vegetable oil (called biodiesel), took a 16,000 km (10,000 mi) journey. The Veggie Van reached speeds up to 105 km/h (65 mph) and achieved a gas mileage of 10.5 km per liter (25 mi per gallon). Some fuel for the Veggie Van was made from used restaurant fryer oil, and its exhaust smelled like french fries.
© 1993-2003 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.

This from an article by the Albany Democrat-Herald
Biodiesel, made from barley, soy and other crops, as well as waste grease from food service or processing industries, is a renewable energy source produced domestically. Carbon dioxide and monoxide emissions are substantially reduced in vehicles that use biodiesel blends, and biodiesel’s higher lubricity helps engines run more smoothly.

Biodiesel cost varies widely, but prices can be as much as 30 cents more per gallon than highway diesel. Moreover, the Water Bureau’s research led to the discovery of several potential headaches.

Heavy vehicles that run on biodiesel can experience up to a 10 percent power reduction due to the lower Btu fuel. And the fuel has difficulty performing at low temperatures, so some vehicles would not be able to run on biodiesel in the winter.

“Biodiesel isn’t the be-all, end-all solution,’’ said Don Holmes, sustainability coordinator for the Water Bureau.

More news in biodiesel today,

This article focuses more on the consumer market end of the equation and provides an interesting view. (Oregon)

Another plan to build a biodiesel plant, this time in Tennessee

In other parts of the world Malayasia plans to build three plants and mentions that global demand for biodiesel is expected to hit 10.5 million tonnes a year soon.

To show that the NIMBY principle doesn’t apply only to prisons and oil refinieries a planned biodiesel plant in Louisville comes unter assault by local residents. Residents are said to fear “…potential problems with odors, chemical emissions and truck traffic.” One resident is quoted as saying "We don't need it, we don't want it." And another "We want some other kind of business in there we know won't cause pollution problems." The article also provides a fact from the National Biodiesel Board that 46 biodiesel plants operate around the country. (Kentucky)

This article speaks to where I see the greatest potentional of biodiesel to be, in the manufacture of their own biodiesel by users. Costillo County is building their own small biodiesel plant from canola to fuel the county vehicles. The other by products will be sold, glycerol for a number of products such as soap or to be used for dust control on roads in major developments to prevent pollution to streams and canola meal as livestock feed.

(Colorado)

Day by Day says it best!

My favorite cartoon gives a good sense of the liberal and media relationship.

Murtha seems to either not pay attention or only reads what supports his position.

Today while reading the latest on the shooting in Miami by a air-marshal, I saw this posting about Murtha claiming Bush has no credibility on Iraq. The article states 'But Murtha told reporters, "I don't see the kind of progress he sees." He said Iraqi electricity and oil production still lag behind prewar levels, and billions in reconstruction funds remain unspent.'. Maybe he should read (or at least not ignore) this Washington Times article. If you are only going to pay attention to what is not getting better (and the terrorists are doing their best to prevent progress) and ignore all the good news, then sure you are going to see the glass as half empty.

That reminds me of the story a few days ago with MoveOn.org protesting the reduction in staff at a major newspaper. This recent report from the Media Research Center shows how the media is focusing on negative events in Iraq. Is it a wonder that some people thing that Iraq is a failure? But for a senator to allow himself to be ignorant of the progress made or worse yet to mis-represent the progress, and then cast Bush as lacking credibility base on that spin, is unacceptable.

Israeli Sea-Green submarine

I recently saw a picture of a Dolphin class submarine Israel imported from Germany painted a rather startling green. I inquired of a bubble-head if he knew why and one of his commentators guessed as better camouflage in the shallow Med. Then I saw this posting which refers to the "bright sea-green camouflage paint". I guess that settles it, thus proving that if you want a quick military answer go to a milblogger. I still think they ordered the paint job from the Volkswagen plant when they bought the sub.

Beautiful photos from Russia

This is a picture from the russian equivalent of Flickr.

Human upgrades!

This is wild! I have to wonder how the religious fundamentalists will craft their arguement against this. Some of the proposed upgrades certainly are more attuned to the prurient interests, but the built in Bluetooth antenna, webbing, and second thumb certainly have real world potential. This is right out of cyber-punk science fiction.

Lao-Tzu the first libertarian

This article by Murray Rothbard from the Mises Institutde argues that Lao-Tzu, the founder of Taoism in China in the sixth century BC, was the first intellectual libertarian and it's a good arguement.

Eminent Domain abuse

This article states that New York State's economic development agency is pushing for use of eminent domain to take private property to hand over to the Seneca Indian Nation which as an Indian nation is a seperate legal entity from the state government. The first article indicates and this article confirms that the state promised to use it's eminent domain powers for this purpose in it's 2002 gaming compact with the tribe.

It's just another case of the government being more than willing to take private property for citizens to raise money. In this case taking some 50 acres to gain millions in state revenue from casinos that of course only the tribe can have.

Davey Crockett - Part 2

This posting by Michelle Malkin over the misuse, abuse, and down right thievery of funds from the 9/11 disaster recovery effort makes a good case for why our politicians today and our voters today (most importantly of all) need to read this story now.

Davy Crockett the responsible politician

This story was just republised in Liberty magazine and it really struck a chord with me. I don't know exactly when we just took for granted that the government should act as a charity rather than supporting those charities that exist for this kind of thing.

I would like to find some verification of this.

This posting by an air force member of the ISG states there was and are WMDs in Iraq.

As with so many things if you just read the headlines you might miss the reality.

Amazingly enough from the New York Times, not normally known for publishing stories on the reality of the situation rather than the news worthy story line. I guess it just happens to be a subject where they prefer the reality gets a chance at being heard. (You need a free registration to read the full article).

Like the testimony at the Dover trial it shows that when it comes to the hard science questions ID proponents are left holding the bag.

While this Reuters article limits coverge to the political and sociological basis of the arguement.

SVO - Straight Vegetable Oil

This one apparently requires no additives like biodiesel does.

Biodiesel breaking out all over.

I thought I would start paying more attention to biodiesel recently and find that there are efforts everywhere. The following are just a few of this week's highlights;

The first biodiesel plant in Wisconsin breaks ground.

Wyoming looking to be a major hub in the biodisel industry.

There does seem to be some room for improvement. Algae in your fuel tank! - (Colorado)

Caldwell County School District in Kentucky switched to Bio20.

This one I have seen several places. I am sure I would prefer all these byproducts in my fuel then in my hotdog! - (Montreal)

Another reason for living in the country instead of the crowded city -(Iowa).

Now we know what to do with the fat from all those chickens. - (Arkansas)

Texas isn't going to be left out of this new fuel industry either.

Who do job cuts at a newspaper hurt?

Well it seems from this protest that it hurts the liberals. I guess that says a lot by itself about whose side of the issues the newspapers usually come down on!

And my favorite cartoon Day by Day weighs in!

This just in; "Teaching with a personal bias is wrong"

Course it seems to depend on what you are teaching. Religious conservatives were up in arms because a recent class to teach Intelligent Design and Creationism as myths was planned for Kansas University. They are using the professors personal comments as cause why he should not be teaching it, but they would really prefer the class not be taught at all though 32 students had already signed up for it.

Too bad they don't get so worked up over all the normal sociology, history and political science classes taught by professors with a bias. They may also describe the entire women's studies and any race based department. Who are they kidding? Most any class taught today is by a professor with some personal bias. Some do better than others at keeping their bias from seeping into their course material but many, if not most, seem to be hired for the express purpose of teaching from their bias.

Excellent article "The Myth of Peak Oil" by Randal O'Toole

As a dedicated libertarian I usually pickup a copy of Liberty to read. While I get turned off by some of the strident stances that are based in reality as I know it they have some of the clearest thinking authors to be found anywhere. This article is the best refutation of the "Peak Oil" argument that I have seen yet.

I do think that he missed one thing. These New Urbanists think that they can plan a community that will allow (force?) people to live within walking/biking distance of work or mass-transit to work. I have seen articles on places in Oregon, Florida, California and other places that try to group housing with business thinking that the people will live in the same community where they work. However they neglect the fact that our labor economy is becoming more and more fluid. According to the US Department of Labor Statistics the Americans average three career changes in their working life.

That's not even counting the number of job changes within career fields. One of the biggest hurdles that people are finding today is adapting to this fluidity. The idea that with multiple job changes and three or more career changes could occur without moving from a community with a small pool of employers is beyond concept. I have changed careers over three times and am still in my mid-life, I am also in my eighth state and ninth metropolitan area. To do this I have always rented as it is next to impossible to buy and sell housing and not lose a bundle over these short time periods (I once moved Dallas to Oakland to Sacramento to Northern Virigina in 18 months). Urban planners don't seem to have any real-life experience, probably because many of them are government employees and there for are among the group of people not worried about layoffs.

Maybe telecommunting will change all that. But don't count on it.

Why are we not talking abou the realistic alternative fuels?

You hear tons and tons of reports, discussions, articles, protests, demonstrations, and flat out arguments on fuel cells, ethanol, electric cars, etc. as alternatives to gasoline, but there are realistic alternatives that don't take a lot of investment that have been available for decades. In fact Henry Ford's first Model T ran on hempoline and Rudolf Diesel (yes, that would be the inventor of the diesel engine) made it to run on vegetable oil even using peanut oil for the 1900 World's Fair.

Diesel engines have a lot of advantages today and require no changes to run bio-based diesel that can be created out of most any vegetable oil, hemp, soy, jojoba, peanut and even used vegetable oil. There is a TV show called Coolfuel that I caught an episode of where they used biodiesel to run a motorhome and even a turbine powered pickup. When the pickup stalled several times they figured out it was because the biodiesel was so clean it was pushing impurities from the previous fuel into the fuel filter. When the filter was changed they had no problems.

So why isn't everyone buying diesel powered cars and creating a market for biodiesel? Hempoline is a banner issue for people who would like to see marijuana legalized, not that I have a problem with that. But everybody talking up the Peak Oil scenario (let's not even get into the problems with that theory). My theory is that the enviromentalists want us to feel pain in converting from petroleum based fuels. This is just too easy for them!

I know that my next car/pickup (some years from now) will be diesel so that I have a choice. Meanwhile there are people out there making biodiesel in the own garage to run their cars on. This site is dedicated to how to make your own biodiesel. Check it out and then think twice about plopping down the extra bucks a hybrid car costs.

Here are a few sites which speak to biodiesel and hempoline.

The flip side of people looking for certainty

A post in Geopolitical Review today on Switzerland passing a 5 year ban on GM foods takes the approach that this is a European viewpoint that is just as anti-science as Intelligent Design. Actually I think it is an example of two sets of people both looking for certainty from different viewpoints. The backers of ID argue that since evolution cannot offer a complete certainty that evolution is responsible for life on Earth today that there for we must look at an alternate view to answer the question. The Europeans who are less religious expect absolute guarantee that GM food is safe in all possible scenarios before they will approve, otherwise known as the Precautionary Principle. Both want certainty in an uncertain world.

Study indicates those with contact to pigs have higher risk of infection - DUH!

Thanks to Instapundit I saw this article on a study partially funded by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The study was purported to say "...suggests U.S. farmers, veterinarians and meat processors have a markedly high risk of infection from flu viruses spread by pigs." and "... the fact pigs can be infected by swine viruses, bird viruses and human flu viruses means they act as virtual virus "mixing bowls.""

This quote from the NIAID Director does not sound like very good science, ""The worry is if a pig were to become simultaneously infected with both a human and an avian influenza virus, genes from these viruses could reassemble into a new virus that could be transmitted to, and cause disease in, people," said NIAID Director Anthony Fauci."

I don't know enough about how viruses can interact to know if this is true, but it sounds more like the rational behind supporters of the Precautionary Principle.

The report is also posted at the NIH website which states this "While the findings are not entirely unexpected, the strikingly higher risk of infection coupled with the fact that pigs can be infected by swine viruses, bird (avian) viruses as well as human flu viruses...". The NIH posting gives more data on the study and it's results. For example the study looked at "111 farmers, 97 meat processing workers and 65 veterinarians. The fourth control group included 79 volunteers from the University of Iowa with no occupational pig exposure.". This doesn't seem like that large a sample.

This statement is the heart of this scare announcement "The researchers tested the serum samples for antibodies to several then-current swine and human influenza A viruses. The results showed that all three occupational study groups had markedly elevated antibodies to swine flu viruses compared with the control group. Farmers had the strongest indication of exposure to swine flu viruses, as much as 35 times higher than the control group. Similarly, comparable values were as much as 18 times higher for veterinarians and as much as 7 times higher for meat processors than the control group. In contrast, exposure to human flu virus in the occupational groups was not significantly different than that of the control group."

It would seem logical to me that people who have some exposure to animal products (meat processors) would have some more risk that those with no exposure and those with year round close exposure would have the greatest, apparently this logic is news to the NIH. More likely they would like it to sound like we need more studies done so that they can continue to justify their, likely sky high, salaries.

However all of this comes under the heading of "Not News". We have known for decades and possibly centuries that those people having direct contact with animals are exposed to more bacteria and viruses. While this does cause I higher infection rate it also means that their immune systems are more robust has it has had to grow stronger to battle these infections. If you don't remember this just go back and read All Creatures Great and Small.

About time Sony!

I have tried and tried to copy MP3s to my PC for Sony XCP DRM disks and have not had any luck. I guess reading some of the horror stories it might have been a good thing that I couldn't get the DRM software to work right, as right seems to have been O so wrong for many. I got to the point where if a CD is listed as copy protected I won't buy it.

So imagine my delight when I received the following notice from Amazon today! If you weren't aware and got stuck with one of these drink coasters jump to it!

The Sony CD(s) listed above contain XCP digital rights management
(DRM) software. Due to security concerns raised about the use of CDs
containing this software on PCs, Sony has recalled these CDs and has
asked Amazon.com to remove all unsold CDs with XCP software from our
store.

Since you purchased this CD from Amazon.com, you may return it to us
for a full refund regardless of whether the CD is opened or unopened.
Just follow these steps:

Big&Rich pay homage to a Vietnam hero - Lawrence Joel

Even if you don't like country music, I would suggest you take a listen to the song 8th of November on Big & Rich's new album Comin' To Your City. I am glad to see the bard's of our time paying rightful homage to the true heros around us, most especially one of those who served in Vietnam.

Here are a few of the lyrics;

Said goodbye to his momma as he left South Dakota
To fight for the red, white, and blue
He was 19 and green with a new M-16
Just doing what he had to do
He was dropped in the jungle where the choppers would rumble
With the smell of napalm in the air
And the sergeant said..look up ahead
Like a dark evil cloud, 1,200 came down on him and 29 more
They fought for their lives but most of them died in the 173rd Airborne

Chorus:
On the 8th of November the angels were crying
As they carried his brothers away
With the fire raining down and the hell all around
There were few men left standing that day
Saw the eagle fly through a clear blue sky
1965, the 8th of November

Now he's 58 and his pony tail's gray
But the battle still plays in his head
He limps when he walks but he's strong when he talks
About the sharpnel they left in his leg
He puts on a gray suit over his Airborne tatoo
And he ties it on one time a year
And remembers the fallen as he orders a tall one
And swallows it down with his tears

Chorus:
On the 8th of November the angels were crying
As they carried his brothers away
With the fire raining down and the hell all around
There were few men left standing that day
Saw the eagle fly through a clear blue sky
1965, the 8th of November

Saw the eagle fly through a clear blue sky
1965,,
On the 8th of November the angels were crying
As they carried his brothers away
With the fire raining down and the hell all around
There were few men left standing that day

Chorus:
On the 8th of November the angels were crying
As they carried his brothers away
With the fire raining down and the hell all around
There were few men left standing that day
Saw the eagle fly through a clear blue sky
1965, the 8th of November
the 8th of November,,

Said goodbye to his momma as he left South Dakota
To fight for the red, white, and blue
He was 19 and green with a new M-16
Just doing what he had to do

The introduction to the song is by Kris Kristofferson and them man is Lawrence Joel, a Medal of Honor recipient. One of the wounded saved was a friend of Big Kenny, Niles Harris, and the source of Kenny's hat.

French Car-B-Que

Most posts I see about the French riots tend to spend a lot of time and space looking at the torching of cars (Car-B-Que as Captain's Quarters terms it) but fail to put this in context. In the November 12-18 2005 Print edition of The Economist (I do occasionally read print) they point out that in France there were 21,900 Car-B-Ques in the first seven months of this year, up (how much is not stated) over the previous year. They do mention that this shows that trouble has been brewing for awhile, but fail to try to relate it other than this leap in logic.

Captain's Quarter posted a Reuters story who repeat others car burning barometers mentioning a rise in Car-B-Ques in the Paris area from 84 to 111. Well at 21,900/210 days that is 104 cars per day and change! So 84 and 111 probably fall in the normal pattern, though I don't know how total French Car-B-Ques tracks against only ones occurring in the Paris area. I can't find a source for the Economist's figure and so far have failed (due to so many recent stories) to track it down in a web search. I have also tried, and failed, to find figures for the U.S.. Apparently it is untracked or just not reported on the web at this time. Since I can remember only a very few incidents reported in my local news (and I have lived over the years in Dallas/Ft. Worth, Denver, Salt Lake City, Sacramento, Oakland, Reston, Raleigh, Spokance and now K.C.) I doubt if the numbers for all of the U.S. come near 104 a day.

So what makes the French want to torch cars every day? Seems from the numbers that Car-B-Queing is as French as Burgundy.

Politics

I think sometimes these poll numbers they report (like Bush's lately) may be more a result of people just being pissed off from hereing about politic BS so much! It doesn't matter the issue each party finds something to bitch about! I wish we could find some politicians that would run independent, not because they are so ambitious and it is the only way, but because they don't want to be associated with ANY political party!

People who listen to the news and have no clue

This morning when I rode up the elevator at work I shared the elevator with two women discussing the disaster in New Orleans. One women mentioned that a rescue helicopter was fired on and then said "When are we going to get rid of handguns! People need to understand that we aren't safe until we get rid of guns!"

It was all I could do to keep my mouth shut! Those who know me realize how difficult that is! This women obviously just heard the news report and decided the problem was that these people had guns. She evidently missed the fact that people were getting carjacked, raped, and robbed by people with guns simply because they did not have a weapon to defend themselves with. How can you hear about the lawless elements running amok and the police stretched to the breaking point and think it is better to be defenseless?

The right and duty to defend yourself and your family is important to all Americans. I don't think we would have as much of a problem with violence in the wake of Katrina if the thugs knew that they would be facing an armed citizen when they tried to take their car. This particularly applies to those events where drugs and critical supplies were taken. Most of these public facilities have policies against their employees being armed which means they are preventing them from defending their life much less the critical medical supplies that were taken.

Will conservatives blow the opportunity that Kelo presents?

Normally when talk turns to the appointment of a new supreme court justice the social conservatives talk about two things. First will the candidate follow the constitution or does the candidate believe the constitution is a living document. Second what the stance of the candidates are on Roe v Wade.

The first is an issue that many fiscal conservatives can agree on and is the one that I believe the Kelo decision brings into focus. However the second is the one that tends to get the most attention and strident support from the social conservatives as well as the liberals. This tends to split those who are fiscal conservatives and socially liberal between both sides of the decision on selecting a candidate.

If the social conservatives can focus on selecting a strict constitutionalist this time and downplay the abortion issue I think they have an opportunity to gain the support of many "moderates", both Democrat and Republican, that they might otherwise loose. So the question is not what the liberals have to say about the candidates (they are on the wrong side of both issues), but instead what the social conservatives have to say. My hopes are faint, but I still hope.

If you haven't guessed I am a neo-libertarian.

I just realized that I had not made clear why this is a good thing for the social conservatives. I believe that if we select someone who has shown that their number one belief in the law is the constitution is a fact and not a living document. If you pick someone who doesn't let their personal believes, what ever they may be, ever interfere with their court decisions and their court decisions always take the constitution as written we will be much less likely to get a justice who will swing decisions from case to case as we have now. If you focus on a candidate who with you on one or more issues, but has not demonstrated a belief that the constitution is the final word, then you don't know how they will rule on issues other than the issue that you focused on.

I don't believe any of us can afford to focus on candidates based on their position on individual issues. While that may mean that some minor issues don't go the way you would like (and I consider the Ten Commandment decisions, both of them, to be minor issues), it means that the big decisions are more likely to not go against you. I think Kelo was the defining moment for how focusing on single issues can come back to bite you.

I have been corrected, the word I was looking for when using constitutionalist, is actually originalist. I must admit I am not sure I have heard this one before. I do remember hearing constructionist, but it doesn't mean quite the same thing, though close. I am guilty, am many of us are, in making up words when we can think of one, or one doesn't exist to express our ideas. I know at work we have made up a lot of words, mainly having to do with the business process.

It

My list of top five authors and next buys. Mine would be (couldn't narrow it down to less than five categories);
Science Fiction:
H. Beam Piper, David Drake, Jerry Pournelle, David Weber, Eric Ringo
Mystery:
C. J. Box, Michael McGarrity, Dorothy L. Sayers, Charles Todd, S. J. Rozan, Tony Hillerman, Dick Frances
General:
W.E.B. Griffin, Douglas Reeman,
History:
John Mosier, Stephen Ambrose,

DVDs - Practical Magic (big Sandra Bullock fan), Fools Rush In (Salma Hayek and Matthew Perry great comic chemistry), Three to Tango (then of course there was Matthew Perry and Neve Campbell), Starship Troopers (pretty good presentation of the spirit of Heinlein), and Rio Bravo (the quintessential Duke movie)

next purchases; John Scalzi's Agent to the Stars (thanks to instapundit), Joseph Heywood's Ice Hunter, Richard Zacks' The Pirate Coast: Thomas Jefferson, The First Marines, and the Secret Mission of 1805, William Hammond's Reporting Vietnam: Media and Military at War

DVD - Be Cool (I did like Get Shorty), Lt. Robin Crusoe (feeling nostalgic), Gunnar Palace, Band of Brothers

The government has access to your cell phone records with no court order

Did you know that the government today has access to your cell phone records? There are projects under the sponsorship of the US Department of Transportation to capture cell phone records (some are GPS records other are actual call records by cell tower) in order to map auto traffic flows. The overall project has been going on for at least two years, maybe four, and continues to grow. While the articles that you run into on the web say that it is anonyms, the reality is that these messages are collected and passed on to the DOT or their contractors and there are no way of preventing them from using it in any manner they want. Your name is not associated with the record, but how much trouble do you think they would have figuring out who owns what cell number?

Privacy gets very hard to track when your data in various forms can be shared without your knowledge.

United States Actions

July 15, 2004: The United States conducted a wargame exercise concerning a Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan by force, and what the U.S. could do to prevent it. The exercise was not kept secret, although the results were. China was not happy with this.

July 6, 2004: The U.S. Navy will conduct a major "surge" exercise (Summer Pulse 04) off the China coast later this Summer. Seven carrier task forces (or "strike groups") will rendezvous near Taiwan and conduct joint exercises with the Taiwanese navy. This is part of the new American Fleet Response Plan (FRP). The new plan keeps strike groups in port more, making it possible to concentrate more of them at a major trouble spot in a hurry. The FRP calls for sending six 'forward deployed' (already at sea) or 'ready to surge' (in port) carrier task forces to a trouble spot within 30 days. Two more task forces can be sent with 90 days. This Summers exercise will be the largest concentration of American naval force off the Chinese coast since World War II. The last time this many carriers were in the western Pacific was during the Vietnam war, when there were as many as seven carriers off the Vietnamese coast, and coming and going within the western Pacific, in support of combat operations in Vietnam.

Seven American carrier task forces means that the Chinese would have a much harder time seizing Taiwan by force. Unless the Chinese can take the island within a few weeks, seven American carrier groups is more than the Chinese believe they can handle for the next 5-10 years. At present, the Chinese are trying to muster sufficient air and naval forces to deal with two American carriers. And even that is not a sure thing. Putting seven American carriers off the Chinese coast not only upsets Chinese military planning, but rubs the Chinese the wrong way by pointing out Chinese military weakness.

Meanwhile, China will conduct it's annual Summer military exercises with amphibious landings and cooperation between land, air and naval forces. In other words, practice for an invasion of Taiwan. These exercises will take place within the next two months.

June 16, 2004: A U.S. government report (The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission annual report) called for a halt to Israeli export of high tech weapons and military equipment to China. Aside from the fact that Chinese and American forces might be fighting each other over Taiwan, there is also the problem that China freely steals any military technology it gets a hold of, and sells its own copies of those weapons to just about anyone with cash.

Indications from Chinese Government of Pressures or Intent

November 29, 2004: China finds itself deploying military forces on several fronts. The most obvious is the coastal areas facing Taiwan. Here there are over 500 ballistic missiles set up and ready to fire, along with several hundred thousand land, air and naval troops.

But there is also a build up of military units on the border with North Korea. The situation in North Korea gets worse each month, with military and police discipline breaking down and more North Koreans illegally crossing into border to defect, do business or commit crimes. China fears a complete breakdown in North Korea, and millions of desperate refugees trying to get into China.

Throughout China, the government continues to "battle" the religious movement Falungong. With tens of millions of devout followers, Falungong only wants to be able to practice their religion openly. But police continue to hunt down members and arrest them. Falungong has gone underground, and is still very much around. And so are thousands of police assigned to stamp out the organization. China expects religious groups to be very responsive to government wishes. Falungong refuses to submit.

On the Internet front, the government has thousands of technicians and police trying to control what is said, and seen, by over a hundred million Internet users. The current major headache is the growth of blogs. There are at least half a million Chinese blogs, and they have proved very difficult to police. The Chinese national police has established "internet squads" in over 700 locations throughout the country. These are the guys who will find local internet transgressions and make arrests. But the local cyber cops are very dependent on China's national level Internet screening efforts. This is called the "Great Firewall of China." It's not perfect, but it does force Chinese to stay away from many foreign news sources. Thus the danger of blogs, which provide news commentary locally, inside the Great Firewall of China.

July 20, 2004: Although the Chinese armed forces have taken the lead in organizing cyberwarfare units (several thousand troops and civilian experts in units that specialize in internet based combat), they are finding Chinese internet use to be a growing problem. There are currently 87 million Internet users in China (a 28 percent increase in one year). While that's only seven percent of the population, it's a very well off and well educated fraction of the population. Sixty percent of them are male, and 54 percent are 24 years old, or younger. Moreover, these Internet users are spread throughout China, meaning that any information the government does not want distributed, can now get around government controls and to the general population. The government has been investing heavily in software and hardware to control what Chinese Internet users can access. But these censorship techniques have not stopped stories that do the most damage. If there is an event that would embarrass the government, it will get through to most Internet users, and this has increasingly caused the government to respond to the public will. This has made the Communist dictatorship much less capable of operating like a dictatorship and is making democracy more acceptable to more people in the ruling Communist Party. The alternative is another revolution, fueled by the Internet.

May 1, 2004: The largest group of Chinese warships to ever visit Hong Kong (two guided missile destroyers, four guided missile frigates, and two submarines). The visit was seen as another attempt to intimidate those in Hong Kong who are pressuring China to live up to its promises to allow democracy in the city. China continues to select city leaders, rather than allowing the promised elections. Many in Taiwan, who favor union with China (because of promises that Taiwan could keep its democratic system) are dismayed at what's going on in Hong Kong. The Chinese leadership apparently does not care, and is rather pleased with the intimidating effect of using military force in Hong Kong. The ships are staying for six days, and then returning to their bases to the north in and around Shanghai.

January 16, 2004: China continues to threaten Taiwan with dire consequences if the island does not surrender it's independence and merge with China. But it's becoming increasingly obvious that China does not have the military capability to take Taiwan by force, and would risk economic ruin by attempting to blockade Taiwan (because Chinese ports could be blocked by mines in retaliation.) No one wants to say out loud that the Chinese are a paper tiger, as it appears quite safe to allow the Chinese to rant and otherwise do no damage to Taiwan.

Chinese Military Equipment Improvements

December 17, 2004: France and Germany continue to pressure the European Union to drop its arms embargo (enacted in 1989 to protest violent government suppression of a democracy movement that year.) France, in particular, sold China many high teach weapons systems in the 1980s, and now wants to sell replacements, and new stuff. China may already be getting military technology from European firms, as China is accustomed to getting stuff any way it can. For example, this week the United States demanded that the Israeli Minister of Defense be fired because Israel upgraded electronic gear, containing American technology, that it had sold to China in the 1990s. The U.S. allowed Israel to repair the equipment, but later found out that it had been upgraded. The U.S. is mad at Israel for improving Chinas air defense and electronic warfare systems. It's not just that many of the Israeli systems contain American technology the Chinese will steal, but because China's threats against Taiwan may one day have American pilots and sailors getting killed because of those systems. China has long tried to steal whatever military technology it could. Many nations are still willing to deal with China, knowing that they are dealing with thieves. The sales arrangements simply take into account the possibility of technology theft, and force the Chinese to pay a premium for their potential larceny. Russia, Israel, France, and even American firms, have done business this way. However, the Pentagon has no patience for this sort of thing, knowing that American troops will ultimately pay for these deals in blood.

December 8, 2004: China has organized its military build up over the last decade with one apparent purpose; taking Taiwan by force. In order to do this, China must be able to control the air over the 300 kilometers of waters that separate Taiwan from the mainland. China has spent billions to buy modern Su-27s and Su-30 fighters from Russia. Modern destroyers and submarines have been bought from Russia as well, in addition to technology for AWACs type aircraft. Money has been spent to allow Chinese pilots to fly as often as their Taiwanese counterparts. China has improved it's amphibious and airborne forces and held more amphibious exercises. A major obstacle to taking Taiwan is the U.S. Navy. To deal with that, China recently launched its first modern SSBN (nuclear submarine carrying ballistic missile.) This boat can carry 16 missiles capable of reaching any target in the United States. The Chinese submarine will almost certainly be tracked by American subs, raising the risk of the Chinese SSBN being torpedoed by a U.S. attack submarine if the Chinese try and use their SSBN missiles to threaten America over support for Taiwan. The Chinese are betting that they can get lucky and evade the American SSN (nuclear attack submarine) that shadows hostile SSBNs, and make an effective threat against the United States. But even if China gets America to back off via nuclear blackmail, it's still a toss-up as to whether the Chinese can put together a military force that can overwhelm Taiwanese defenses. Launching an amphibious operation across 300 kilometers of open ocean is a formidable undertaking. There are many modern weapons, like cruise missiles and "smart" naval mines, that can make life very difficult for an amphibious force. Then again, China may just be spending all the money to make an elaborate, convincing and expensive bluff. Making Taiwan an offer they can't refuse, but that China cannot back up.

October 1, 2004: China continues efforts to obtain military technology from the United States by any means it can. In the past week, two Chinese citizens were arrested in Wisconsin, for attempting to illegally exporting to China components for military radars or communications equipment.

August 10, 2004: China is rapidly installing more ballistic missiles on the coast opposite Taiwan. By next year, it's expected that about 800 missiles will be in position. If used, perhaps 75 percent of the missiles would actually hit their target (the others would suffer failures in propulsion or guidance systems.) Each missile is the equivalent of a half ton bomb. But currently, the missiles have primitive guidance systems, meaning that the warheads will usually hit up to 500 meters from the target. The Chinese are believed to be equipping the missiles with GPS, although the Taiwanese can jam this. Guidance systems that are more difficult to jam are in the works, but are probably five or more years away.

May 24, 2004: After spending nearly two billion dollars a year, for over a decade, to buy Russian high tech weapons, China is demanding that Russia sell the manufacturing technology so that China can build these weapons itself. Russia has been reluctant to do this, as military technology, and the ability to build high tech weapons, is one of the few military advantages Russia has over China. This is going to get interesting.

May 20, 2004: China has been blocked, by American diplomatic pressure, from buying several "counter stealth" Vera radars from a Czech Republic manufacturer. The Vera radar claims to defeat the stealth capabilities, although there has been little opportunity to test this in a combat situation. But on paper, the Vera radars are apparently a threat, and the United States was eager to prevent the Chinese from getting this equipment (which would threaten the effectiveness of F-117, F-22, F-35, B-1 and B-2 aircraft.)

May 7, 2004: China's military buildup appears different depending on where you are. In Taiwan, the $70 billion a year China is now spending on the armed forces appears as preparation for an invasion of Taiwan. Hundreds of ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, new ship building programs that includes amphibious ships. South East Asian nations see the Chinese buildup as directed at control of the shipping lanes so crucial to the economic health of those nations. But the revamping of the Chinese armed forces also appear to be directed at countering the military power of the United States. This is most obvious in ways that do not get much coverage. There's the enormous amount of effort the Chinese are putting into Internet based combat, and the ability to attack space satellites. Both of these areas are currently dominated by the U.S. And then there are all the books published in China that discuss future wars with the United States. Books are not published in China unless the government allows it, and some of these anti-American efforts were written by military officers.

April 10, 2004: Pakistani test pilots flew the joint Chinese-Pakistani JF-17 fighter. The aircraft first flew last September and is to enter mass production in two years, with another 16 JF-17s being built in the meantime for testing purposes. The JF-17 project has been going on since 1992 and has cost over half a billion dollars. Most of the money has come from China. The project has gone through several name changes (FC-1, Super 7). The 13 ton warplane is meant to be a low cost ($20 million) alternative to the American F-16. The JF-17 is considered the equal to earlier versions of the F-16, but only 80 percent as effective as more recent F-16 models. The JF-17 uses the same Russian engine, the RD-93, that is used in the MiG-29. The JF-17 design is based on a cancelled Russian project, the MiG-33. Most of the JF-17 electronics are Western, with Italian firms being major suppliers. The JF-17 can carry 3.6 tons of weapons and use radar guided and heat seeking missiles. It has max speed of Mach 1.6, an operating range of 1,300 kilometers and a max altitude of 55,000 feet.

China and Pakistan have been allies since the 1950s and Pakistan has bought much of its military equipment from China.

From and unknown blog post and confirmed from www.china-defense.com;

According to the 2004-2005 issue of Jane's Fighting Ships, and confirmed by China-defense.com on its threads "landing craft" and "minor landing craft" (whic post pictures, hull number lists, and comments), PLAN is building landing ships at an unprecedented rate. These include:

1) The Yuting II class LSTH - an improved version of the existing helicopter capable LST. Nine ships have completed in 2003 and 2004, compared to a history of one every 2 or 3 years. My PLA historian friend's copy of the PLA Officer's Handbook indicates these vessels have a maximum load of 2000 tons - 250% what is estimated by Western experts - so past estimates of load capabilities were too low. No less than three shipyards are building this class simultaneously.

2) The 87 meter long Yunshu class LSM. This is a scale up of the Yuliang, after a period of experimenting with a scaled down version. There are also three different shipyards building this class.

3) A 64 meter landing ship - the first hull number spotted was 3315 - but the class leader was 3232. This is classified as an LCU, but it is 1 meter longer than China's smallest LSM, and it is way to big to be loaded on ships which normally could carry an LCU. I classify it as a small LSM. It may be a scale down of the Yudeng class LSM, but I think it is a new, dual hulled design. China has been experimenting with multi-hull vessels for reasons of efficiency in a seaway (speed in rough seas, a major issue in the Taiwan Strait), and is close to tied for first place in the world in this (with Australia). Once again, no less than three shipyards are building this vessel. Janes says "which suggests that high numbers can be expected."

4) Reports of the construction of LSDs or LPDs with flight decks are now more common, even though they are built in covered ways. It appears they are nearing completion. These ships can service two transport helicopters and operate four. They can carry 4 LCAC and are good looking ships, similar to current European vessels of similar concept. It is said sighting of their flight decks was thought by some observers to mean they were aircraft carriers. The have a SAM system forward and very impressive defensive guns. They also carry small ACVs, four to a side

Chinese Military Improvements in Organization and Structure

January 12, 2005: China is trying to fix its reserve forces. In particular, the ten million members of the "Primary Militia." The militia is composed of millions of citizens who would be armed if the country is invaded. The Primary Militia are the ones who are supposed to be trained and organized. But they aren't, and the government wants to fix this. But a shortage of money, and enthusiasm by the militia members, makes this difficult. Some members of the government question the wisdom of training too many ordinary citizens how to use an AK-47.

December 31, 2004: Japan has never been very popular with the Chinese, but last month's voyage of a Chinese nuclear sub into Japanese waters, Japan releasing a defense plan aimed at China, and a closer relationship between Japan and Taiwan, have created a frosty atmosphere. While Japan is still hated to its military activities 60 years ago, China is feared for what it's armed forces are capable of doing now. As a result, China is facing a potential coalition of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, three of the most advanced industrial countries on the planet. China's only ally is Russia, who is willing to offer neutrality, not a military alliance. Chinese and Russian military units holding joint training exercises, and China remains Russia's largest weapons customer.

December 27, 2004: China is halting it's long term program of reducing military manpower. Current strength of 2.3 million will be maintained. Partly, this is to help with the unemployment problem. About 44 percent of the troops are conscripted for two years, the rest are volunteers for longer periods. However, there are problems recruiting capable officers. So officer salaries are being increased up to 50 percent. The lowest ranking officers (2nd lieutenants) will see their monthly pay go from $240 to $360. However, a colonel only makes $720 a month. Special allowances and bonuses double the pay for most officers in the navy, air force and ballistic missile units. The booming economy offers better paying, and more comfortable, jobs to young men with education and leadership ability.

November 17, 2004: China admitted that the submerged submarine the Japanese navy has been tracking off the coast of Okinawa was, indeed, a Chinese boat. The Japanese had always insisted that the sub was Chinese. Apparently, American P-3 patrol aircraft, operating from Guam, were the first to pick up the location of the Chinese sub on November 9th, and then turned the tracking over to the Japanese navy. It was American technology that confirmed the identification of the sub. During the Cold War, the United States developed techniques for identifying individual submarines according to their shape, and by the noises they made. The American navy maintains electronic databases of submarines "signatures." The same technique apparently also worked for large whales.

China has apologized for the incident, which had their boat inside Japanese territorial waters for a short period of time. China said the cause was a navigational accident. China has been sending its subs to sea more often over the last few years, in order to raise the skill levels of the crews.

September 10, 2004: Below the media radar, China's armed forces are undergoing some fundamental transformations. Decades of bad habits are being cleared away. Units are being reorganized on a more practical basis. For example, over the decades, senior generals in different parts of the country had allowed their combat units to drift into many different special types of organization. There were also no standards for training, or not much training at all in many areas. No more. There is a program of forcing units throughout the country to undergo standard training drills, and then take a test. Units that pass are rewarded. Those that fail, get to keep training. Successful officers advance, those that fail often lose their jobs. The training is done on the cheap, as much as possible. Lots of class room stuff and field exercises that don't burn a lot of fuel and ammo. All of this is creating a much more lethal Chinese military force. But it is moving slowly, and will take up to a decade, and two or three times the current annual defense budget, before the Chinese become a world class military power.

August 12, 2004: China has appointed two senior officers, who are considered experts in dealing with American naval forces, to the military high command. Lieutenant-General Xu Qiliang and Vice-Admiral Wu Shengli were both appointed Deputy Chiefs of Staff last month, but it was only recently announced. Xu and Wu are very much in favor of taking Taiwan by force, despite the possible participation of American armed forces in the islands defense.

April 27, 2004: The Chinese army newspaper (the PLA Daily) printed an article describing a recent exercise portraying an attack on American targets by a Chinese force in which "the (Chinese) group army joined hands with the research institutes to develop a simulated communication confrontation training system by using computer network, multimedia and virtual technology."

March 6, 2004: China is determined to create armed forces that can beat Americans in combat. Chinese military and political leaders were heavily influenced by the American performance in the two Iraq wars, and in Afghanistan. For decades, many Chinese military and political leaders still believed that a massive guerilla war (as in World War II against the Japanese) would defeat any invader. But the Americans demonstrated an ability to quickly (and with few casualties) brush aside a less well trained and equipped army. Worse, from the Chinese point of view, was the American use of Special Forces and Civil Affairs troops to quickly get the support of the majority of the population. While the world's media dotes on the continued resistance of Taliban and Saddam loyalists, the Chinese note that the Americans were very quick in winning over the majority of a foreign population. Of course, the US is the only army on the planet with anything like Special Forces troops. But the American military is the only one on the planet that China really fears.

So China is trying to duplicate the American armed forces methods and equipment. Right now, there are less than 100,000 troops in this mini-modern army, air force and navy. It costs a lot of money to buy the equipment, select the troops and then let them train to the same standard as the Americans. China is also, like the Americans, studying new and novel ways to fight.

The Chinese are discovering that all that realistic and intense training is very expensive. But, increasingly, China is coming up with the cash. China's actual defense spending is running at about $55 billion a year. Precise numbers are not released, and many purchases for the military are not declared as "military." But much of this money still goes to support over two million men (and a few women) who serve in the armed forces. The official budget is $22 billion, and this has been going up at least ten percent a year for the last few years, and this rate of growth is to continue. Manpower is being reduced from 2.5 to 2.3 million. But for now, and the rest of the decade, the Chinese military has a thin crust of modern weapons and troops, beneath which are the bulk of the forces equipped with 30-40 year old technology and poorly trained and led.

Getting the troops to "think like Americans" isn't easy either. But it will all be worth it if China can produce even a small force that can "fight like Americans." For the most immediate enemy is not America, but Taiwan. Here are Chinese who often "think like Americans", and could possible fight like Americans (although the Taiwanese armed forces, to the frustration of American advisors, is more prone to think like Chinese.) If there is war with Taiwan, it might also mean facing American forces. In any event, the ability to win quickly will be very, very valuable. And the Americans have shown how that can be done.

Actions by Taiwan

January 24, 2005: Taiwan is converting its armed forces to an all-volunteer force. Noting the success of other all-volunteer forces (especially the U.S. and Britain), and being able to afford this approach, the conversion will take up to a decade. Some conscription will be retained, mainly to support a reserve force. The reserve troops would be needed if China every tried to invade. Within three years, sixty percent of all troops will be career professionals. By 2008, conscripts will only have to serve one year of active duty. Currently, conscripts serve 33 months, and are paid only $173 a month. Professionals get an average $1,100 a month. The armed forces has found that many military skills take longer than 33 months to obtain. Even skills that can be obtained within 33 months, get better the longer the troops serve. For a long time, Taiwan has been urged by the United States to upgrade the quality of its troops. With China rapidly upgrading its forces, and the success of U.S. troops in the last two decades, Taiwan has finally been convinced. It remains to be seen if Taiwan can carry out this plan. On the bright side, there is the example of Singapore, a Chinese nation that has created a first rate military force. On the down side, there is centuries of Chinese experience with peace time military plans that produce grand ideas, but inept troops.

October 19, 2004: The Taiwanese defense minister announced that China could shut down Taiwan's ports with only 13 submarines, and that China currently has a force of 86 subs (although 46 are quite old.) Taiwan is buying 12 P-3 submarine hunting aircraft, and eight modern subs, to be used for hunting down and destroying Chinese subs. However, anti-submarine warfare technology is changing, with sensors and lightweight torpedoes carried by helicopters and UAVs, seen as the sub killers of the future. But Taiwan still wants eight subs, equipped with superior American underwater sensors, to hunt down the rather noisy Chinese subs. The American technology was well proven during the Cold War against the Russian type subs that currently equip the Chinese navy.

October 17, 2004: Taiwan fears that China is using the flow of visitors between China and Taiwan to plant more spies. Taiwan has detected at least 3,000 Chinese visitors who arrived in Taiwan, but left no record of ever leaving, or applying for a longer stay. China is a much more restrictive environment, and more difficult for Taiwanese to "get lost."

October 15, 2004: Taiwan has decided to reduce it's armed forces to 300,000 (from about 350,000 now) by 2009, instead of 2012, as was the previous plan. Conscription is unpopular, and fewer troops will mean more money for new equipment. Defending the island against Chinese attack is seen more a matter of technology than masses of troops.

October 10, 2004: Taiwan wants to buy American HARM (High speed Anti-Radar Missile) missiles, and will probably get them. In the last ten years, the U.S. has sold Taiwan laser guided bombs, Maverick missiles, and modifications for Harpoon missiles (GPS guidance kits) that turn them into short range cruise missiles. The HARM missiles would enable Taiwan to more easily go after China's increasing inventory of modern anti-aircraft radars. China's latest warships, especially those bought from Russia, contain very capable radar systems. HARM missiles were designed to go after such radars, and destroy them. Taiwan will also probably get JDAM GPS guided bombs. These are more effective than laser guided bombs, especially in cloudy or misty conditions when lasers don't work very well, if at all. China will protest that selling these weapons to Taiwan violates the American promise to not sell Taiwan offensive weapons. But HARM and JDAM are most useful in crippling a Chinese attack force headed for Taiwan, and that's what China is most concerned about, but doesn't want to admit.

September 30, 2004: Taiwan says it believes that by 2006 China will have 800 Dong Feng-11 and Dong Feng-15 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan.

September 26, 2004: Taiwan has secretly developed and tested a cruise missile, the Hsiung-feng 2E, which can reach targets deep inside China. The missile has a range of up to 300 kilometers. The secrecy of the development program was because Taiwan has long pledged that it would only develop defensive weapons. The Hsiung-feng 2E is a further development of the existing Hsiung-feng 2 anti-ship missile (which weighs 1,500 pounds and has a 500 pound warhead). It was not difficult to make the Hsiung-feng 2 longer, thus allowing for more fuel capacity, and increasing its range. It had long been rumored that this kind of upgrade was underway, but the government never admitted it. But recently, Taiwan said it would retaliate if China attacked, and a cruise missile capable of reaching Chinese cities would do that.

September 22, 2004: Taiwan plans to spend $60 billion on defense over the next five years. Currently, China is spending about that much each year. But China's GNP is only about twice that of Taiwan. China has 2.2 million people in its armed forces, versus 350,000 for Taiwan. China's population is 1.2 billion, versus 23 million for Taiwan. Taiwan's troops are better trained and equipped than the Chinese, and that has prevented China from taking the island for over half a century. But China is spending a lot of money to close the quality gap. An amphibious operation, which is required to take the island of Taiwan, is one of the most difficult of military operations. Currently, and for the next few years, China does not have the shipping and trained troops for an attack. China could try some unconventional tactics to carry out an invasion of Taiwan, but these are more likely to fail in a spectacular fashion. The Chinese government cannot afford the embarrassment of such a failure. So the arms race continues, with China hoping to get far enough ahead of Taiwan in military capability in the next decade to enable a successful invasion. Actually, just the threat of a successful invasion might encourage Taiwan to negotiate a new relationship with China, or to step up its military spending once more. .

September 5, 2004: Taiwan arrested a former air force sergeant and a Taiwanese businessman for stealing data on Taiwan's Mirage 2000-5 warplane and selling it to China. This was not, apparently, an espionage network, but a couple of guys who saw an opportunity, took it and got caught. The espionage war between Taiwan and China is lively, lucrative and dangerous. The Chinese kill spies, and treat badly those they don't.

August 15, 2004: Taiwan has gone public with its fears that China is preparing to start a war with a "decapitation strike" (an attack that attempts to kill Taiwan's leaders). Such attacks are an ancient tactic, but are more difficult today because national leaders have more places to hide. But the Chinese plan is said to rely on it's hundreds of ballistic missiles, and spies inside Taiwan that would provide the exact location of senior military and political leaders.

August 14, 2004: Taiwan's military age manpower continues to decline, with only 178,000 coming of age (18) this year, down 8.3 percent from 2003. Moreover, 61 percent of those turning 18 delay their military service, usually because they are in college.

August 11, 2004: The Taiwanese armed forces announced that a computerized wargame of a Chinese invasion had the Chinese conquering the island in six days. It is widely thought that this is a ploy by the armed forces to get the legislature to spend the large sums of money the military wants to upgrade their weapons and equipment. The legislature is reluctant to spend the money, believing that the U.S. navy will defend the island from the Chinese.

July 21, 2004: For the first time in 26 years, Taiwan included actual use of superhighways, as secondary air fields for combat aircraft, in their military exercises. Two Mirage 2000 fighters landed on a highway, were serviced, and took off again. Parts of Taiwan's system of superhighways were designed just for this purpose, but actual use of the highways during training exercises has lapsed because the Defense Ministry did not want to block traffic. This particular training exercise was done more for diplomatic reasons, to remind China that Taiwan had many defensive capabilities.

June 9, 2004: China is undergoing a transportation crises that has military and diplomatic overtones. As China's economy has boomed in the last two decades, the state owned railroad system has not put money into expanding the railroads to keep pace. As a result, many businesses are forced to cut back their expansion plans until the railroad capacity can catch up. But this problem has resulted in Taiwan's ability to bomb key Chinese economic targets if there should ever be a war with Taiwan. China's purchase of highly capable Russian Su-30 long range bombers has made Chinese generals aware that Taiwan has long had the same capability in its fleet of F-16 aircraft. If was the F-16 that Israel used in 1981 to make a daring, long range attack that destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor at Osirak. Now news stories are appearing describing Taiwanese spies, carrying GPS devices, caught around key Chinese economic targets. And now everyone realizes that Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian has, since being elected in 2000, been preparing a "Scorpion Defense" against a Chinese attack. Such a strategy only works if it is out in the open where the Chinese population and leadership can be properly terrified. Now it's in the open, because of public remarks by Taiwanese officials.

For whatever reason, the story has become a major one in China and Taiwan, with media competing to see who can come up with a more terrifying target list. Taiwan's F-16's, using American smart bombs, are now credited with the ability to quickly take out key bridges and tunnels, crippling China's transportation system, and economy. Even water transport is not immune. A few well placed smart bombs could crack open the new Three Gorges dam, killing over half a million people downstream and making millions more homeless, and jobless.

Taiwan also says it has long range missiles, with special warheads, for cracking open the 300 foot think concrete Three Gorges dam. Chinese generals are angrily denying that the dam or the railroads are vulnerable, but any Chinese with any sense of military history know better. Officially, Taiwan denies that it has any plans to take out Chinese dams. This, despite senior Taiwanese officials being quoted at public meetings talking about such plans.

China plans to spend nearly half a trilling dollars in the next 15 years to expand the railroads, and billions more to buy Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. But Taiwan already has over 140 F-16s, thousands of smart bombs and pilots who know how to use both. Taiwan also has electronic countermeasures for China's new, Russian made, air defenses. Taiwan won't say how effective those countermeasures are, but in the past, Russian anti-aircraft missiles have done poorly against such countermeasures. China's generals now have to consider not just the problems of attacking Taiwan, but the cost to China from Taiwan's counterattack. At the moment, it appears that the cost would be too high to justify the conquest of the lost island province.

April 6, 2004: Taiwanese politicians are beginning to complain about the declining state of military training. Young men are now more prone to complain of the rigors of military training, and parents have more frequently complained to politicians. As a result, basic training has been made "more bearable" and readiness in many combat units has declined. American military observers have been complaining to senior Taiwanese commanders, and now it's become a political issue. One thing spurring this debate is the growing military power of China. By the end of this year, China is expected to have over 200 Russian Su-27 class warplanes in service. The various versions of the Su-27 (like the Su-30) are roughly equivalent to the American F-15. China is allowing its pilots to fly more hours a month and is training more air force maintenance personnel (so that the Su-27s can be used more intensively.) China is buying electronic warfare equipment from Russia that was designed to disrupt the American made radars and electronics.

Taiwan military planners see China having sufficient military power to have a chance at successfully conquering Taiwan as early as 2006. In response, Taiwan is buying new early warning radars and anti-aircraft weapons. Taiwan has only some 330 modern fighters and is planning to upgrade them soon. Many Taiwanese believe that American support, especially military support, is the ultimate guarantor of their freedom from Communist China.

Chinese Military Funding

January 26, 2005: Even in a booming economy, Chinese defense industries stand out, growing 26.8 percent in 2004 (to $20 billion in sales). Chinas military industries, many of them owned by the armed forces, produce everything from assault rifles, to warships, electronics and warplanes. China has been aggressively buying, or stealing, military technology, and upgrading the weapons it builds. Chinese weapons technology has always been way behind what is found in the West. But currently, compared to the United States, Chinese produced weapons are, in some cases, only a decade or two behind, and still closing the gap.

January 11, 2005: The government announced that it will increase money spent on modernizing the navy, air force and missile forces. Chinese efforts to develop their own advanced military technology, and build Chinese designed weapons, is showing results. New ship and submarine designs are entering service. New warplane designs, after many years of trial and error, are also ready for mass production. China appears to be considering shifting money from producing Russian Su-27s under license, to producing Chinese designs. Chinese ballistic missiles, most of them with a range under 1,000 kilometers (just enough to pound Taiwanese targets) are taking advantage of the growing Chinese electronics industry to produce more reliable, accurate and inexpensive guidance systems.

April 24, 2004: China is more than doubling its annual defense spending. Much of the defense spending is not identified as such (things like weapons development, construction and some soldier benefits). But it appears that current annual spending is approaching $70 billion a year. Most of the new money is for upgrading 1960s era weapons and support systems in the navy and air force.

Chinese Strategic Data

January 27, 2005: Department of Defense intelligence analysts are having a hard time figuring out when China thinks it will be ready to make a grab for Taiwan. The recent surge in the construction of short range amphibious ships, and constant movement of more ballistic missiles to within range of Taiwan, indicate something may happen sooner rather than later. Taiwan is only 300 kilometers from China. There are about 600 DF-15 missiles (with a range of 600 kilometers) aimed at Taiwan now, and by next year, there may be 800. Moreover, it is suspected that these missiles, and their half ton warheads, are being equipped with precise GPS navigation systems. Such systems could cripple Taiwan's air force and air defenses. China has been training its marines and army troops for amphibious operations. Because of all this, it is believed that China would be ready to make a run at Taiwan by 2010. By then they would have several hundred modern warplanes, dozens of destroyers and submarines, bombers equipped with anti-ship missiles and a long standing declaration that they would regain control of Taiwan one way or the other.

But other analysts point out that China has always done poorly in the early stages of a war, and that their program to create a large force of professional troops, and modern equipment, will take longer. Only small portions of the Chinese armed forces are getting trained and equipped to Western standards. Over 90 percent of the Chinese military are beset by decades old equipment designs and corrupt or incompetent leaders. Only with highly trained and well equipped troops, would they have a chance against Taiwanese and American forces. To produce a large force like this would take another ten or twenty years, at least. In the meantime, the Taiwanese have noted the Chinese preparations, and have suddenly for modernization fever. Until recently, Taiwanese legislators were keen to cut their defense budget. No more.

Since the 1990s, Chinese officers have been writing books about the future of the Chinese military, and possible war involving Taiwan and the United States. The authors recognize many of China's military problems, without admitting that the corruption and lack of readiness are as bad as they really are. But the books also discuss taking advantages of enemy vulnerabilities. Cyberwar, innovative tactics and electronic warfare are discussed, and China is known to be investing heavily in these areas. The most worrisome aspect of all this is the nationalistic flavor of these books, making it seem like a sacred duty to regain Taiwan, and take on the United States, in order to restore China to its exalted position in the world. China has not been a major world power for over two centuries, and many Chinese leaders are harping on this big time. Foreign observers, and some Chinese, see all this as the usual ploy beleaguered dictators use to get their subjects minds off local problems!

. The military dictatorship of Argentina used this in 1982, making a grab for the British Falkland islands, in the belief that the British would not exert themselves to take the islands back. The Argentine gamble failed, for the British did send a fleet to regain the islands. What most analysts of Chinese affairs fear most is "another Falklands," with China going after Taiwan. The United States is a far more formidable military force than 1982 Britain. In 1982, the Argentines did manage to capture the Falklands, but a future attack on Taiwan might not even be able to grab the island before the American fleet and air force showed up to help out. Moreover, China has nuclear weapons, and the temptation to threaten use of nukes if more powerful American forces do not back off. China is playing with fire, and it's uncertain how many Chinese leaders are even aware of how dangerous a game they are involved in.

September 25, 2004: For the second year in a row, for China allowed military observers from foreign countries to observe some military exercises. Officers from Brunei, the Philippines, Tajikistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Russia, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam were invited to watch a military exercise in Henan province. A reinforced mechanized division went through several exercises. China also offers training courses for foreign officers at Chinese military colleges. China is trying to improve its relations with its neighbors, and being more open with military operations is one way to do that. These exercises, featuring elite Chinese units, also serve to show the neighbors that China's armed forces are strong, and China is not to be messed with or defied.

September 23, 2004: Never before in its history has China's well being been so dependant on sea trade. For thousands of years, China was a "continental power." That is, a nation that produced all it needed, or obtained it from neighbors via a shared land border. Only luxuries came in by sea. China is now importing nearly six million barrels of oil a day, a figure which is up a third from last year. China's export industries turn out so much stuff that last year, China passed the United States as the world's largest cargo handler. So China's growing fleet of warships and patrol aircraft should come as no surprise. But other nations in the region (South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines), are also very dependant on seaborne trade. Who shall control these sea lanes that are so important to all? Right now it's the United States Navy. China is not comfortable with that.

August 1, 2004: China's defense minister again threatened Taiwan with invasion, maintaining what is now a long tradition of threats.

July 22, 2004: China is now pushing the idea that Taiwan will be peacefully (with perhaps a bit of military threat) taken over by 2021. There has been much speculation that China might make an attempt to capture Taiwan, using military force, sooner. But a closer examination of China's military power indicates that it will be many years, a decade at least, before China could be capable of taking Taiwan via an air, land and sea campaign. But then there is the possibility of American intervention. Even 2020 might not be enough time for China muster sufficient force to take on American military power. Increasingly, the Chinese leadership is taking the longer, and safer, view. This is in contrast to the saber rattling from some generals and other officers.

China also has an ancient problem with peacetime rot. The military becomes less effective during long periods of peace, but the generals are not aware of how poorly prepared their troops are. China last fought in 1979, against Vietnam, the military performed poorly.

Taiwan is taking the Chinese threat seriously, and considering moving some of the eight military air bases in western Taiwan, to the eastern side of the island. This would make the air bases less vulnerable to attack by Chinese amphibious troops. But everything on Taiwan is vulnerable to air, with the west coast reachable within ten minutes by warplanes flying from China.

May 28, 2004: China apparently believes it can more easily defeat the Taiwanese armed forces with strong words, rather than more modern weapons. China has put enormous economic and diplomatic pressure on countries that even consider selling advanced weaponry to Taiwan. Even the United States gets this treatment, and, to a certain extent, it works. There is a growing block of legislators and voters in America that believes China should not be crossed when it comes to arming Taiwan. All of this plays into a growing complacency among Taiwanese voters, who are growing increasingly reluctant to pay for new, and expensive, weapons. Many Taiwanese believe that the United States will protect them, mainly because Taiwan's high tech economy is, in effect, a key part of the American economy. It's true that Taiwan produces many electronic components that are essential for the smooth running of the American economy. But nothing made in Taiwan is irreplaceable. This is the Chinese view, and China believes that, year by year, Taiwan becomes weaker militarily, while China modernizes and becomes stronger. Eventually, China can attack Taiwan and win, even if the United States intervenes. This sort of siege approach may take another decade or two. But in the Chinese scheme of thinking, such patience is an accepted approach.

March 16, 2004: The Chinese and French Navies are holding a five-day long joint naval exercise off the coast of Qingdao, a port city in east China's Shandong province (about 1,250 kilometers from Taiwan's northernmost point). This cruise is the twelfth visit made by French warships to China and their fourth to Qingdao. Involving around 700 sailors (322 of them French), this is to date the largest joint drill held by the Chinese and any foreign navy.

The corvette-class 'Commandant Birot' and anti-submarine-warfare destroyer 'Latouche-Treville' arrived on March 12, joining the Chinese 'Harbin' destroyer, a supply vessel 'Hongze Lake' and a ship with a helicopter landing pad. The two groups completed flag signal exchanges and fleet formation changes. The March 16 exercises lasted eight hours, including refueling exercises at sea and search-and-rescue exercises, as well as landing helicopters on the other's vessels.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Sing Tao Daily also reported that Chinese heavy military equipment had been moved into the south-western province of Fujian (facing Taiwan) while across the channel, news reports said that mobile antiaircraft missile systems had been quietly deployed in Taipei as police stepped up security.

So why is the timing of this exercise important? And why are the French involved?
This show of military strength just four days before Taiwan holds a presidential election signaled China's desire to isolate the self-governing island before the vote and its first-ever referendum, which Beijing views as a provocative step towards independence. However, China's official Xinhua news agency made no link between the exercises and the election.

China adopted a more subtle approach to avoid driving Taiwan voters into the camp of the pro-independence Chen. In 1996, China threatened Taiwan with missile tests and war games in the run-up to the island's first direct presidential elections, an attempt to dissuade voters from re-electing President Lee Teng-hui. This backfired and Lee won by a landslide.

France simply has more to gain by appearing to side with China. France, once a major supplier of weapons to Taiwan, has made no major deals with them for about 10 years. However, the diplomats can win French businesses a firm footing in a larger and rapidly growing market.

In January, President Chirac sided with China by opposing Taiwanese President Shui-bian's plan to hold a referendum on missile defense concurrent with the presidential elections. Taiwan responded by suspending high-level government exchanges with France. - Adam Geibel

Why Taiwan should be an issue for the 2008 presidential ellection

That's right I said the 2008 election!

Why now you say? Because the Chinese are building up to take Taiwan now we need to begin the discussion about are we going to stand behind our allies when the bullets fly or abandon them.

Ok, so the next question I am sure you are asking is why I think that. Well! I am glad you asked, because as everyone will tell you I have an opinion on everything. Take a look at the following info that primarily comes from www.strategypage.com from Jan. 1st 2004 to now. I have broken them down into categories.

Why treating terrorism as a police issue won't work.

I don't know why someone hasn't pointed this out before or if they have why it hasn't received more attention. Kerry seems to be indicating that he would like to return to the prior strategy of treating terrorism as a police issue with his focus on funding first responders and global alliances.

The police are really good at putting together evidence to proof that a criminal is guilty of a crime, but they don't have a good track record of preventing crimes. That is mainly because it is very hard to do without intrusive surveillance into any public or private group at all, not just the ones currently known to be violent.

Global alliances such as the UN generally require similar evidence of a crime or security issue before the alliance will agree to act. Thus the reason why there were so many resolutions against Saddam without taking action.

Both approaches are good for after the fact proving who is responsible for an act. Of course it came take quite some time to find out who and by the time you do the impetus to take action has cooled so much that it can be hard to get agreement from the global community a year after the fact that action is warranted. The big question for the US is do we really want to wait for another 9/11 incident before we take action? I don't think so!

This is what is really confusing about Kerry's nuanced talk about a global test. Even if you take the global test in context, as Kerry is insisting you do to understand it, it still doesn't make sense. The statement in the debate was "No president, through all of American history, has ever ceded -- and nor would I -- the right to preempt in any way necessary, to protect the United States of America," "But if and when you do it, Jim, you've got to do it in a way that passes the, the test, that passes the global test where your countrymen, your people, understand fully why you're doing what you're doing, and you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons."

Kerry is saying that the issue is over legitimacy, but as we found with Iraq if the French, Germans, or Chinese define the bar to legitimacy too high we can still come away as acting unilaterally. Kerry's nuanced position leaves plenty of doubt that he would be willing to go ahead with taking preemptive action if he cannot meet major world player's definition of legitimate reasons for taking action. Additionally this puts in an automatic delays while you go through the steps with these nations to make the case your actions are warranted.

In all I would be more comfortable with Kerry if he was to say that he doesn't agree with Bush's decision in this case, but that he agrees that there are times that you have to take action without the world's approval. He may feel he has done this, but everytime he addresses the issue he is so nuanced that it comes across very wimpy.

Blogging

Like many new bloggers I am learning new respect for such dedicated bloggers as Instapundit, Blackfive, and others. The amount of time and creativity to find something to say everyday on your blog site is more than expected. I really don't want to post something just to post, but only when I have something unique to say. So if anybody has found the site and wondered why I don't post more often that is why. (Course the fact that I am a world class procrastinator has nothing to do with it.)

Fascinating posting on human adaptation

If you haven't read Futurepundit I highly recommend it if for nothing else this article.