United States Actions

July 15, 2004: The United States conducted a wargame exercise concerning a Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan by force, and what the U.S. could do to prevent it. The exercise was not kept secret, although the results were. China was not happy with this.

July 6, 2004: The U.S. Navy will conduct a major "surge" exercise (Summer Pulse 04) off the China coast later this Summer. Seven carrier task forces (or "strike groups") will rendezvous near Taiwan and conduct joint exercises with the Taiwanese navy. This is part of the new American Fleet Response Plan (FRP). The new plan keeps strike groups in port more, making it possible to concentrate more of them at a major trouble spot in a hurry. The FRP calls for sending six 'forward deployed' (already at sea) or 'ready to surge' (in port) carrier task forces to a trouble spot within 30 days. Two more task forces can be sent with 90 days. This Summers exercise will be the largest concentration of American naval force off the Chinese coast since World War II. The last time this many carriers were in the western Pacific was during the Vietnam war, when there were as many as seven carriers off the Vietnamese coast, and coming and going within the western Pacific, in support of combat operations in Vietnam.

Seven American carrier task forces means that the Chinese would have a much harder time seizing Taiwan by force. Unless the Chinese can take the island within a few weeks, seven American carrier groups is more than the Chinese believe they can handle for the next 5-10 years. At present, the Chinese are trying to muster sufficient air and naval forces to deal with two American carriers. And even that is not a sure thing. Putting seven American carriers off the Chinese coast not only upsets Chinese military planning, but rubs the Chinese the wrong way by pointing out Chinese military weakness.

Meanwhile, China will conduct it's annual Summer military exercises with amphibious landings and cooperation between land, air and naval forces. In other words, practice for an invasion of Taiwan. These exercises will take place within the next two months.

June 16, 2004: A U.S. government report (The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission annual report) called for a halt to Israeli export of high tech weapons and military equipment to China. Aside from the fact that Chinese and American forces might be fighting each other over Taiwan, there is also the problem that China freely steals any military technology it gets a hold of, and sells its own copies of those weapons to just about anyone with cash.

Indications from Chinese Government of Pressures or Intent

November 29, 2004: China finds itself deploying military forces on several fronts. The most obvious is the coastal areas facing Taiwan. Here there are over 500 ballistic missiles set up and ready to fire, along with several hundred thousand land, air and naval troops.

But there is also a build up of military units on the border with North Korea. The situation in North Korea gets worse each month, with military and police discipline breaking down and more North Koreans illegally crossing into border to defect, do business or commit crimes. China fears a complete breakdown in North Korea, and millions of desperate refugees trying to get into China.

Throughout China, the government continues to "battle" the religious movement Falungong. With tens of millions of devout followers, Falungong only wants to be able to practice their religion openly. But police continue to hunt down members and arrest them. Falungong has gone underground, and is still very much around. And so are thousands of police assigned to stamp out the organization. China expects religious groups to be very responsive to government wishes. Falungong refuses to submit.

On the Internet front, the government has thousands of technicians and police trying to control what is said, and seen, by over a hundred million Internet users. The current major headache is the growth of blogs. There are at least half a million Chinese blogs, and they have proved very difficult to police. The Chinese national police has established "internet squads" in over 700 locations throughout the country. These are the guys who will find local internet transgressions and make arrests. But the local cyber cops are very dependent on China's national level Internet screening efforts. This is called the "Great Firewall of China." It's not perfect, but it does force Chinese to stay away from many foreign news sources. Thus the danger of blogs, which provide news commentary locally, inside the Great Firewall of China.

July 20, 2004: Although the Chinese armed forces have taken the lead in organizing cyberwarfare units (several thousand troops and civilian experts in units that specialize in internet based combat), they are finding Chinese internet use to be a growing problem. There are currently 87 million Internet users in China (a 28 percent increase in one year). While that's only seven percent of the population, it's a very well off and well educated fraction of the population. Sixty percent of them are male, and 54 percent are 24 years old, or younger. Moreover, these Internet users are spread throughout China, meaning that any information the government does not want distributed, can now get around government controls and to the general population. The government has been investing heavily in software and hardware to control what Chinese Internet users can access. But these censorship techniques have not stopped stories that do the most damage. If there is an event that would embarrass the government, it will get through to most Internet users, and this has increasingly caused the government to respond to the public will. This has made the Communist dictatorship much less capable of operating like a dictatorship and is making democracy more acceptable to more people in the ruling Communist Party. The alternative is another revolution, fueled by the Internet.

May 1, 2004: The largest group of Chinese warships to ever visit Hong Kong (two guided missile destroyers, four guided missile frigates, and two submarines). The visit was seen as another attempt to intimidate those in Hong Kong who are pressuring China to live up to its promises to allow democracy in the city. China continues to select city leaders, rather than allowing the promised elections. Many in Taiwan, who favor union with China (because of promises that Taiwan could keep its democratic system) are dismayed at what's going on in Hong Kong. The Chinese leadership apparently does not care, and is rather pleased with the intimidating effect of using military force in Hong Kong. The ships are staying for six days, and then returning to their bases to the north in and around Shanghai.

January 16, 2004: China continues to threaten Taiwan with dire consequences if the island does not surrender it's independence and merge with China. But it's becoming increasingly obvious that China does not have the military capability to take Taiwan by force, and would risk economic ruin by attempting to blockade Taiwan (because Chinese ports could be blocked by mines in retaliation.) No one wants to say out loud that the Chinese are a paper tiger, as it appears quite safe to allow the Chinese to rant and otherwise do no damage to Taiwan.

Chinese Military Equipment Improvements

December 17, 2004: France and Germany continue to pressure the European Union to drop its arms embargo (enacted in 1989 to protest violent government suppression of a democracy movement that year.) France, in particular, sold China many high teach weapons systems in the 1980s, and now wants to sell replacements, and new stuff. China may already be getting military technology from European firms, as China is accustomed to getting stuff any way it can. For example, this week the United States demanded that the Israeli Minister of Defense be fired because Israel upgraded electronic gear, containing American technology, that it had sold to China in the 1990s. The U.S. allowed Israel to repair the equipment, but later found out that it had been upgraded. The U.S. is mad at Israel for improving Chinas air defense and electronic warfare systems. It's not just that many of the Israeli systems contain American technology the Chinese will steal, but because China's threats against Taiwan may one day have American pilots and sailors getting killed because of those systems. China has long tried to steal whatever military technology it could. Many nations are still willing to deal with China, knowing that they are dealing with thieves. The sales arrangements simply take into account the possibility of technology theft, and force the Chinese to pay a premium for their potential larceny. Russia, Israel, France, and even American firms, have done business this way. However, the Pentagon has no patience for this sort of thing, knowing that American troops will ultimately pay for these deals in blood.

December 8, 2004: China has organized its military build up over the last decade with one apparent purpose; taking Taiwan by force. In order to do this, China must be able to control the air over the 300 kilometers of waters that separate Taiwan from the mainland. China has spent billions to buy modern Su-27s and Su-30 fighters from Russia. Modern destroyers and submarines have been bought from Russia as well, in addition to technology for AWACs type aircraft. Money has been spent to allow Chinese pilots to fly as often as their Taiwanese counterparts. China has improved it's amphibious and airborne forces and held more amphibious exercises. A major obstacle to taking Taiwan is the U.S. Navy. To deal with that, China recently launched its first modern SSBN (nuclear submarine carrying ballistic missile.) This boat can carry 16 missiles capable of reaching any target in the United States. The Chinese submarine will almost certainly be tracked by American subs, raising the risk of the Chinese SSBN being torpedoed by a U.S. attack submarine if the Chinese try and use their SSBN missiles to threaten America over support for Taiwan. The Chinese are betting that they can get lucky and evade the American SSN (nuclear attack submarine) that shadows hostile SSBNs, and make an effective threat against the United States. But even if China gets America to back off via nuclear blackmail, it's still a toss-up as to whether the Chinese can put together a military force that can overwhelm Taiwanese defenses. Launching an amphibious operation across 300 kilometers of open ocean is a formidable undertaking. There are many modern weapons, like cruise missiles and "smart" naval mines, that can make life very difficult for an amphibious force. Then again, China may just be spending all the money to make an elaborate, convincing and expensive bluff. Making Taiwan an offer they can't refuse, but that China cannot back up.

October 1, 2004: China continues efforts to obtain military technology from the United States by any means it can. In the past week, two Chinese citizens were arrested in Wisconsin, for attempting to illegally exporting to China components for military radars or communications equipment.

August 10, 2004: China is rapidly installing more ballistic missiles on the coast opposite Taiwan. By next year, it's expected that about 800 missiles will be in position. If used, perhaps 75 percent of the missiles would actually hit their target (the others would suffer failures in propulsion or guidance systems.) Each missile is the equivalent of a half ton bomb. But currently, the missiles have primitive guidance systems, meaning that the warheads will usually hit up to 500 meters from the target. The Chinese are believed to be equipping the missiles with GPS, although the Taiwanese can jam this. Guidance systems that are more difficult to jam are in the works, but are probably five or more years away.

May 24, 2004: After spending nearly two billion dollars a year, for over a decade, to buy Russian high tech weapons, China is demanding that Russia sell the manufacturing technology so that China can build these weapons itself. Russia has been reluctant to do this, as military technology, and the ability to build high tech weapons, is one of the few military advantages Russia has over China. This is going to get interesting.

May 20, 2004: China has been blocked, by American diplomatic pressure, from buying several "counter stealth" Vera radars from a Czech Republic manufacturer. The Vera radar claims to defeat the stealth capabilities, although there has been little opportunity to test this in a combat situation. But on paper, the Vera radars are apparently a threat, and the United States was eager to prevent the Chinese from getting this equipment (which would threaten the effectiveness of F-117, F-22, F-35, B-1 and B-2 aircraft.)

May 7, 2004: China's military buildup appears different depending on where you are. In Taiwan, the $70 billion a year China is now spending on the armed forces appears as preparation for an invasion of Taiwan. Hundreds of ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, new ship building programs that includes amphibious ships. South East Asian nations see the Chinese buildup as directed at control of the shipping lanes so crucial to the economic health of those nations. But the revamping of the Chinese armed forces also appear to be directed at countering the military power of the United States. This is most obvious in ways that do not get much coverage. There's the enormous amount of effort the Chinese are putting into Internet based combat, and the ability to attack space satellites. Both of these areas are currently dominated by the U.S. And then there are all the books published in China that discuss future wars with the United States. Books are not published in China unless the government allows it, and some of these anti-American efforts were written by military officers.

April 10, 2004: Pakistani test pilots flew the joint Chinese-Pakistani JF-17 fighter. The aircraft first flew last September and is to enter mass production in two years, with another 16 JF-17s being built in the meantime for testing purposes. The JF-17 project has been going on since 1992 and has cost over half a billion dollars. Most of the money has come from China. The project has gone through several name changes (FC-1, Super 7). The 13 ton warplane is meant to be a low cost ($20 million) alternative to the American F-16. The JF-17 is considered the equal to earlier versions of the F-16, but only 80 percent as effective as more recent F-16 models. The JF-17 uses the same Russian engine, the RD-93, that is used in the MiG-29. The JF-17 design is based on a cancelled Russian project, the MiG-33. Most of the JF-17 electronics are Western, with Italian firms being major suppliers. The JF-17 can carry 3.6 tons of weapons and use radar guided and heat seeking missiles. It has max speed of Mach 1.6, an operating range of 1,300 kilometers and a max altitude of 55,000 feet.

China and Pakistan have been allies since the 1950s and Pakistan has bought much of its military equipment from China.

From and unknown blog post and confirmed from www.china-defense.com;

According to the 2004-2005 issue of Jane's Fighting Ships, and confirmed by China-defense.com on its threads "landing craft" and "minor landing craft" (whic post pictures, hull number lists, and comments), PLAN is building landing ships at an unprecedented rate. These include:

1) The Yuting II class LSTH - an improved version of the existing helicopter capable LST. Nine ships have completed in 2003 and 2004, compared to a history of one every 2 or 3 years. My PLA historian friend's copy of the PLA Officer's Handbook indicates these vessels have a maximum load of 2000 tons - 250% what is estimated by Western experts - so past estimates of load capabilities were too low. No less than three shipyards are building this class simultaneously.

2) The 87 meter long Yunshu class LSM. This is a scale up of the Yuliang, after a period of experimenting with a scaled down version. There are also three different shipyards building this class.

3) A 64 meter landing ship - the first hull number spotted was 3315 - but the class leader was 3232. This is classified as an LCU, but it is 1 meter longer than China's smallest LSM, and it is way to big to be loaded on ships which normally could carry an LCU. I classify it as a small LSM. It may be a scale down of the Yudeng class LSM, but I think it is a new, dual hulled design. China has been experimenting with multi-hull vessels for reasons of efficiency in a seaway (speed in rough seas, a major issue in the Taiwan Strait), and is close to tied for first place in the world in this (with Australia). Once again, no less than three shipyards are building this vessel. Janes says "which suggests that high numbers can be expected."

4) Reports of the construction of LSDs or LPDs with flight decks are now more common, even though they are built in covered ways. It appears they are nearing completion. These ships can service two transport helicopters and operate four. They can carry 4 LCAC and are good looking ships, similar to current European vessels of similar concept. It is said sighting of their flight decks was thought by some observers to mean they were aircraft carriers. The have a SAM system forward and very impressive defensive guns. They also carry small ACVs, four to a side

Chinese Military Improvements in Organization and Structure

January 12, 2005: China is trying to fix its reserve forces. In particular, the ten million members of the "Primary Militia." The militia is composed of millions of citizens who would be armed if the country is invaded. The Primary Militia are the ones who are supposed to be trained and organized. But they aren't, and the government wants to fix this. But a shortage of money, and enthusiasm by the militia members, makes this difficult. Some members of the government question the wisdom of training too many ordinary citizens how to use an AK-47.

December 31, 2004: Japan has never been very popular with the Chinese, but last month's voyage of a Chinese nuclear sub into Japanese waters, Japan releasing a defense plan aimed at China, and a closer relationship between Japan and Taiwan, have created a frosty atmosphere. While Japan is still hated to its military activities 60 years ago, China is feared for what it's armed forces are capable of doing now. As a result, China is facing a potential coalition of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, three of the most advanced industrial countries on the planet. China's only ally is Russia, who is willing to offer neutrality, not a military alliance. Chinese and Russian military units holding joint training exercises, and China remains Russia's largest weapons customer.

December 27, 2004: China is halting it's long term program of reducing military manpower. Current strength of 2.3 million will be maintained. Partly, this is to help with the unemployment problem. About 44 percent of the troops are conscripted for two years, the rest are volunteers for longer periods. However, there are problems recruiting capable officers. So officer salaries are being increased up to 50 percent. The lowest ranking officers (2nd lieutenants) will see their monthly pay go from $240 to $360. However, a colonel only makes $720 a month. Special allowances and bonuses double the pay for most officers in the navy, air force and ballistic missile units. The booming economy offers better paying, and more comfortable, jobs to young men with education and leadership ability.

November 17, 2004: China admitted that the submerged submarine the Japanese navy has been tracking off the coast of Okinawa was, indeed, a Chinese boat. The Japanese had always insisted that the sub was Chinese. Apparently, American P-3 patrol aircraft, operating from Guam, were the first to pick up the location of the Chinese sub on November 9th, and then turned the tracking over to the Japanese navy. It was American technology that confirmed the identification of the sub. During the Cold War, the United States developed techniques for identifying individual submarines according to their shape, and by the noises they made. The American navy maintains electronic databases of submarines "signatures." The same technique apparently also worked for large whales.

China has apologized for the incident, which had their boat inside Japanese territorial waters for a short period of time. China said the cause was a navigational accident. China has been sending its subs to sea more often over the last few years, in order to raise the skill levels of the crews.

September 10, 2004: Below the media radar, China's armed forces are undergoing some fundamental transformations. Decades of bad habits are being cleared away. Units are being reorganized on a more practical basis. For example, over the decades, senior generals in different parts of the country had allowed their combat units to drift into many different special types of organization. There were also no standards for training, or not much training at all in many areas. No more. There is a program of forcing units throughout the country to undergo standard training drills, and then take a test. Units that pass are rewarded. Those that fail, get to keep training. Successful officers advance, those that fail often lose their jobs. The training is done on the cheap, as much as possible. Lots of class room stuff and field exercises that don't burn a lot of fuel and ammo. All of this is creating a much more lethal Chinese military force. But it is moving slowly, and will take up to a decade, and two or three times the current annual defense budget, before the Chinese become a world class military power.

August 12, 2004: China has appointed two senior officers, who are considered experts in dealing with American naval forces, to the military high command. Lieutenant-General Xu Qiliang and Vice-Admiral Wu Shengli were both appointed Deputy Chiefs of Staff last month, but it was only recently announced. Xu and Wu are very much in favor of taking Taiwan by force, despite the possible participation of American armed forces in the islands defense.

April 27, 2004: The Chinese army newspaper (the PLA Daily) printed an article describing a recent exercise portraying an attack on American targets by a Chinese force in which "the (Chinese) group army joined hands with the research institutes to develop a simulated communication confrontation training system by using computer network, multimedia and virtual technology."

March 6, 2004: China is determined to create armed forces that can beat Americans in combat. Chinese military and political leaders were heavily influenced by the American performance in the two Iraq wars, and in Afghanistan. For decades, many Chinese military and political leaders still believed that a massive guerilla war (as in World War II against the Japanese) would defeat any invader. But the Americans demonstrated an ability to quickly (and with few casualties) brush aside a less well trained and equipped army. Worse, from the Chinese point of view, was the American use of Special Forces and Civil Affairs troops to quickly get the support of the majority of the population. While the world's media dotes on the continued resistance of Taliban and Saddam loyalists, the Chinese note that the Americans were very quick in winning over the majority of a foreign population. Of course, the US is the only army on the planet with anything like Special Forces troops. But the American military is the only one on the planet that China really fears.

So China is trying to duplicate the American armed forces methods and equipment. Right now, there are less than 100,000 troops in this mini-modern army, air force and navy. It costs a lot of money to buy the equipment, select the troops and then let them train to the same standard as the Americans. China is also, like the Americans, studying new and novel ways to fight.

The Chinese are discovering that all that realistic and intense training is very expensive. But, increasingly, China is coming up with the cash. China's actual defense spending is running at about $55 billion a year. Precise numbers are not released, and many purchases for the military are not declared as "military." But much of this money still goes to support over two million men (and a few women) who serve in the armed forces. The official budget is $22 billion, and this has been going up at least ten percent a year for the last few years, and this rate of growth is to continue. Manpower is being reduced from 2.5 to 2.3 million. But for now, and the rest of the decade, the Chinese military has a thin crust of modern weapons and troops, beneath which are the bulk of the forces equipped with 30-40 year old technology and poorly trained and led.

Getting the troops to "think like Americans" isn't easy either. But it will all be worth it if China can produce even a small force that can "fight like Americans." For the most immediate enemy is not America, but Taiwan. Here are Chinese who often "think like Americans", and could possible fight like Americans (although the Taiwanese armed forces, to the frustration of American advisors, is more prone to think like Chinese.) If there is war with Taiwan, it might also mean facing American forces. In any event, the ability to win quickly will be very, very valuable. And the Americans have shown how that can be done.

Actions by Taiwan

January 24, 2005: Taiwan is converting its armed forces to an all-volunteer force. Noting the success of other all-volunteer forces (especially the U.S. and Britain), and being able to afford this approach, the conversion will take up to a decade. Some conscription will be retained, mainly to support a reserve force. The reserve troops would be needed if China every tried to invade. Within three years, sixty percent of all troops will be career professionals. By 2008, conscripts will only have to serve one year of active duty. Currently, conscripts serve 33 months, and are paid only $173 a month. Professionals get an average $1,100 a month. The armed forces has found that many military skills take longer than 33 months to obtain. Even skills that can be obtained within 33 months, get better the longer the troops serve. For a long time, Taiwan has been urged by the United States to upgrade the quality of its troops. With China rapidly upgrading its forces, and the success of U.S. troops in the last two decades, Taiwan has finally been convinced. It remains to be seen if Taiwan can carry out this plan. On the bright side, there is the example of Singapore, a Chinese nation that has created a first rate military force. On the down side, there is centuries of Chinese experience with peace time military plans that produce grand ideas, but inept troops.

October 19, 2004: The Taiwanese defense minister announced that China could shut down Taiwan's ports with only 13 submarines, and that China currently has a force of 86 subs (although 46 are quite old.) Taiwan is buying 12 P-3 submarine hunting aircraft, and eight modern subs, to be used for hunting down and destroying Chinese subs. However, anti-submarine warfare technology is changing, with sensors and lightweight torpedoes carried by helicopters and UAVs, seen as the sub killers of the future. But Taiwan still wants eight subs, equipped with superior American underwater sensors, to hunt down the rather noisy Chinese subs. The American technology was well proven during the Cold War against the Russian type subs that currently equip the Chinese navy.

October 17, 2004: Taiwan fears that China is using the flow of visitors between China and Taiwan to plant more spies. Taiwan has detected at least 3,000 Chinese visitors who arrived in Taiwan, but left no record of ever leaving, or applying for a longer stay. China is a much more restrictive environment, and more difficult for Taiwanese to "get lost."

October 15, 2004: Taiwan has decided to reduce it's armed forces to 300,000 (from about 350,000 now) by 2009, instead of 2012, as was the previous plan. Conscription is unpopular, and fewer troops will mean more money for new equipment. Defending the island against Chinese attack is seen more a matter of technology than masses of troops.

October 10, 2004: Taiwan wants to buy American HARM (High speed Anti-Radar Missile) missiles, and will probably get them. In the last ten years, the U.S. has sold Taiwan laser guided bombs, Maverick missiles, and modifications for Harpoon missiles (GPS guidance kits) that turn them into short range cruise missiles. The HARM missiles would enable Taiwan to more easily go after China's increasing inventory of modern anti-aircraft radars. China's latest warships, especially those bought from Russia, contain very capable radar systems. HARM missiles were designed to go after such radars, and destroy them. Taiwan will also probably get JDAM GPS guided bombs. These are more effective than laser guided bombs, especially in cloudy or misty conditions when lasers don't work very well, if at all. China will protest that selling these weapons to Taiwan violates the American promise to not sell Taiwan offensive weapons. But HARM and JDAM are most useful in crippling a Chinese attack force headed for Taiwan, and that's what China is most concerned about, but doesn't want to admit.

September 30, 2004: Taiwan says it believes that by 2006 China will have 800 Dong Feng-11 and Dong Feng-15 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan.

September 26, 2004: Taiwan has secretly developed and tested a cruise missile, the Hsiung-feng 2E, which can reach targets deep inside China. The missile has a range of up to 300 kilometers. The secrecy of the development program was because Taiwan has long pledged that it would only develop defensive weapons. The Hsiung-feng 2E is a further development of the existing Hsiung-feng 2 anti-ship missile (which weighs 1,500 pounds and has a 500 pound warhead). It was not difficult to make the Hsiung-feng 2 longer, thus allowing for more fuel capacity, and increasing its range. It had long been rumored that this kind of upgrade was underway, but the government never admitted it. But recently, Taiwan said it would retaliate if China attacked, and a cruise missile capable of reaching Chinese cities would do that.

September 22, 2004: Taiwan plans to spend $60 billion on defense over the next five years. Currently, China is spending about that much each year. But China's GNP is only about twice that of Taiwan. China has 2.2 million people in its armed forces, versus 350,000 for Taiwan. China's population is 1.2 billion, versus 23 million for Taiwan. Taiwan's troops are better trained and equipped than the Chinese, and that has prevented China from taking the island for over half a century. But China is spending a lot of money to close the quality gap. An amphibious operation, which is required to take the island of Taiwan, is one of the most difficult of military operations. Currently, and for the next few years, China does not have the shipping and trained troops for an attack. China could try some unconventional tactics to carry out an invasion of Taiwan, but these are more likely to fail in a spectacular fashion. The Chinese government cannot afford the embarrassment of such a failure. So the arms race continues, with China hoping to get far enough ahead of Taiwan in military capability in the next decade to enable a successful invasion. Actually, just the threat of a successful invasion might encourage Taiwan to negotiate a new relationship with China, or to step up its military spending once more. .

September 5, 2004: Taiwan arrested a former air force sergeant and a Taiwanese businessman for stealing data on Taiwan's Mirage 2000-5 warplane and selling it to China. This was not, apparently, an espionage network, but a couple of guys who saw an opportunity, took it and got caught. The espionage war between Taiwan and China is lively, lucrative and dangerous. The Chinese kill spies, and treat badly those they don't.

August 15, 2004: Taiwan has gone public with its fears that China is preparing to start a war with a "decapitation strike" (an attack that attempts to kill Taiwan's leaders). Such attacks are an ancient tactic, but are more difficult today because national leaders have more places to hide. But the Chinese plan is said to rely on it's hundreds of ballistic missiles, and spies inside Taiwan that would provide the exact location of senior military and political leaders.

August 14, 2004: Taiwan's military age manpower continues to decline, with only 178,000 coming of age (18) this year, down 8.3 percent from 2003. Moreover, 61 percent of those turning 18 delay their military service, usually because they are in college.

August 11, 2004: The Taiwanese armed forces announced that a computerized wargame of a Chinese invasion had the Chinese conquering the island in six days. It is widely thought that this is a ploy by the armed forces to get the legislature to spend the large sums of money the military wants to upgrade their weapons and equipment. The legislature is reluctant to spend the money, believing that the U.S. navy will defend the island from the Chinese.

July 21, 2004: For the first time in 26 years, Taiwan included actual use of superhighways, as secondary air fields for combat aircraft, in their military exercises. Two Mirage 2000 fighters landed on a highway, were serviced, and took off again. Parts of Taiwan's system of superhighways were designed just for this purpose, but actual use of the highways during training exercises has lapsed because the Defense Ministry did not want to block traffic. This particular training exercise was done more for diplomatic reasons, to remind China that Taiwan had many defensive capabilities.

June 9, 2004: China is undergoing a transportation crises that has military and diplomatic overtones. As China's economy has boomed in the last two decades, the state owned railroad system has not put money into expanding the railroads to keep pace. As a result, many businesses are forced to cut back their expansion plans until the railroad capacity can catch up. But this problem has resulted in Taiwan's ability to bomb key Chinese economic targets if there should ever be a war with Taiwan. China's purchase of highly capable Russian Su-30 long range bombers has made Chinese generals aware that Taiwan has long had the same capability in its fleet of F-16 aircraft. If was the F-16 that Israel used in 1981 to make a daring, long range attack that destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor at Osirak. Now news stories are appearing describing Taiwanese spies, carrying GPS devices, caught around key Chinese economic targets. And now everyone realizes that Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian has, since being elected in 2000, been preparing a "Scorpion Defense" against a Chinese attack. Such a strategy only works if it is out in the open where the Chinese population and leadership can be properly terrified. Now it's in the open, because of public remarks by Taiwanese officials.

For whatever reason, the story has become a major one in China and Taiwan, with media competing to see who can come up with a more terrifying target list. Taiwan's F-16's, using American smart bombs, are now credited with the ability to quickly take out key bridges and tunnels, crippling China's transportation system, and economy. Even water transport is not immune. A few well placed smart bombs could crack open the new Three Gorges dam, killing over half a million people downstream and making millions more homeless, and jobless.

Taiwan also says it has long range missiles, with special warheads, for cracking open the 300 foot think concrete Three Gorges dam. Chinese generals are angrily denying that the dam or the railroads are vulnerable, but any Chinese with any sense of military history know better. Officially, Taiwan denies that it has any plans to take out Chinese dams. This, despite senior Taiwanese officials being quoted at public meetings talking about such plans.

China plans to spend nearly half a trilling dollars in the next 15 years to expand the railroads, and billions more to buy Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. But Taiwan already has over 140 F-16s, thousands of smart bombs and pilots who know how to use both. Taiwan also has electronic countermeasures for China's new, Russian made, air defenses. Taiwan won't say how effective those countermeasures are, but in the past, Russian anti-aircraft missiles have done poorly against such countermeasures. China's generals now have to consider not just the problems of attacking Taiwan, but the cost to China from Taiwan's counterattack. At the moment, it appears that the cost would be too high to justify the conquest of the lost island province.

April 6, 2004: Taiwanese politicians are beginning to complain about the declining state of military training. Young men are now more prone to complain of the rigors of military training, and parents have more frequently complained to politicians. As a result, basic training has been made "more bearable" and readiness in many combat units has declined. American military observers have been complaining to senior Taiwanese commanders, and now it's become a political issue. One thing spurring this debate is the growing military power of China. By the end of this year, China is expected to have over 200 Russian Su-27 class warplanes in service. The various versions of the Su-27 (like the Su-30) are roughly equivalent to the American F-15. China is allowing its pilots to fly more hours a month and is training more air force maintenance personnel (so that the Su-27s can be used more intensively.) China is buying electronic warfare equipment from Russia that was designed to disrupt the American made radars and electronics.

Taiwan military planners see China having sufficient military power to have a chance at successfully conquering Taiwan as early as 2006. In response, Taiwan is buying new early warning radars and anti-aircraft weapons. Taiwan has only some 330 modern fighters and is planning to upgrade them soon. Many Taiwanese believe that American support, especially military support, is the ultimate guarantor of their freedom from Communist China.

Chinese Military Funding

January 26, 2005: Even in a booming economy, Chinese defense industries stand out, growing 26.8 percent in 2004 (to $20 billion in sales). Chinas military industries, many of them owned by the armed forces, produce everything from assault rifles, to warships, electronics and warplanes. China has been aggressively buying, or stealing, military technology, and upgrading the weapons it builds. Chinese weapons technology has always been way behind what is found in the West. But currently, compared to the United States, Chinese produced weapons are, in some cases, only a decade or two behind, and still closing the gap.

January 11, 2005: The government announced that it will increase money spent on modernizing the navy, air force and missile forces. Chinese efforts to develop their own advanced military technology, and build Chinese designed weapons, is showing results. New ship and submarine designs are entering service. New warplane designs, after many years of trial and error, are also ready for mass production. China appears to be considering shifting money from producing Russian Su-27s under license, to producing Chinese designs. Chinese ballistic missiles, most of them with a range under 1,000 kilometers (just enough to pound Taiwanese targets) are taking advantage of the growing Chinese electronics industry to produce more reliable, accurate and inexpensive guidance systems.

April 24, 2004: China is more than doubling its annual defense spending. Much of the defense spending is not identified as such (things like weapons development, construction and some soldier benefits). But it appears that current annual spending is approaching $70 billion a year. Most of the new money is for upgrading 1960s era weapons and support systems in the navy and air force.

Chinese Strategic Data

January 27, 2005: Department of Defense intelligence analysts are having a hard time figuring out when China thinks it will be ready to make a grab for Taiwan. The recent surge in the construction of short range amphibious ships, and constant movement of more ballistic missiles to within range of Taiwan, indicate something may happen sooner rather than later. Taiwan is only 300 kilometers from China. There are about 600 DF-15 missiles (with a range of 600 kilometers) aimed at Taiwan now, and by next year, there may be 800. Moreover, it is suspected that these missiles, and their half ton warheads, are being equipped with precise GPS navigation systems. Such systems could cripple Taiwan's air force and air defenses. China has been training its marines and army troops for amphibious operations. Because of all this, it is believed that China would be ready to make a run at Taiwan by 2010. By then they would have several hundred modern warplanes, dozens of destroyers and submarines, bombers equipped with anti-ship missiles and a long standing declaration that they would regain control of Taiwan one way or the other.

But other analysts point out that China has always done poorly in the early stages of a war, and that their program to create a large force of professional troops, and modern equipment, will take longer. Only small portions of the Chinese armed forces are getting trained and equipped to Western standards. Over 90 percent of the Chinese military are beset by decades old equipment designs and corrupt or incompetent leaders. Only with highly trained and well equipped troops, would they have a chance against Taiwanese and American forces. To produce a large force like this would take another ten or twenty years, at least. In the meantime, the Taiwanese have noted the Chinese preparations, and have suddenly for modernization fever. Until recently, Taiwanese legislators were keen to cut their defense budget. No more.

Since the 1990s, Chinese officers have been writing books about the future of the Chinese military, and possible war involving Taiwan and the United States. The authors recognize many of China's military problems, without admitting that the corruption and lack of readiness are as bad as they really are. But the books also discuss taking advantages of enemy vulnerabilities. Cyberwar, innovative tactics and electronic warfare are discussed, and China is known to be investing heavily in these areas. The most worrisome aspect of all this is the nationalistic flavor of these books, making it seem like a sacred duty to regain Taiwan, and take on the United States, in order to restore China to its exalted position in the world. China has not been a major world power for over two centuries, and many Chinese leaders are harping on this big time. Foreign observers, and some Chinese, see all this as the usual ploy beleaguered dictators use to get their subjects minds off local problems!

. The military dictatorship of Argentina used this in 1982, making a grab for the British Falkland islands, in the belief that the British would not exert themselves to take the islands back. The Argentine gamble failed, for the British did send a fleet to regain the islands. What most analysts of Chinese affairs fear most is "another Falklands," with China going after Taiwan. The United States is a far more formidable military force than 1982 Britain. In 1982, the Argentines did manage to capture the Falklands, but a future attack on Taiwan might not even be able to grab the island before the American fleet and air force showed up to help out. Moreover, China has nuclear weapons, and the temptation to threaten use of nukes if more powerful American forces do not back off. China is playing with fire, and it's uncertain how many Chinese leaders are even aware of how dangerous a game they are involved in.

September 25, 2004: For the second year in a row, for China allowed military observers from foreign countries to observe some military exercises. Officers from Brunei, the Philippines, Tajikistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Russia, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam were invited to watch a military exercise in Henan province. A reinforced mechanized division went through several exercises. China also offers training courses for foreign officers at Chinese military colleges. China is trying to improve its relations with its neighbors, and being more open with military operations is one way to do that. These exercises, featuring elite Chinese units, also serve to show the neighbors that China's armed forces are strong, and China is not to be messed with or defied.

September 23, 2004: Never before in its history has China's well being been so dependant on sea trade. For thousands of years, China was a "continental power." That is, a nation that produced all it needed, or obtained it from neighbors via a shared land border. Only luxuries came in by sea. China is now importing nearly six million barrels of oil a day, a figure which is up a third from last year. China's export industries turn out so much stuff that last year, China passed the United States as the world's largest cargo handler. So China's growing fleet of warships and patrol aircraft should come as no surprise. But other nations in the region (South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines), are also very dependant on seaborne trade. Who shall control these sea lanes that are so important to all? Right now it's the United States Navy. China is not comfortable with that.

August 1, 2004: China's defense minister again threatened Taiwan with invasion, maintaining what is now a long tradition of threats.

July 22, 2004: China is now pushing the idea that Taiwan will be peacefully (with perhaps a bit of military threat) taken over by 2021. There has been much speculation that China might make an attempt to capture Taiwan, using military force, sooner. But a closer examination of China's military power indicates that it will be many years, a decade at least, before China could be capable of taking Taiwan via an air, land and sea campaign. But then there is the possibility of American intervention. Even 2020 might not be enough time for China muster sufficient force to take on American military power. Increasingly, the Chinese leadership is taking the longer, and safer, view. This is in contrast to the saber rattling from some generals and other officers.

China also has an ancient problem with peacetime rot. The military becomes less effective during long periods of peace, but the generals are not aware of how poorly prepared their troops are. China last fought in 1979, against Vietnam, the military performed poorly.

Taiwan is taking the Chinese threat seriously, and considering moving some of the eight military air bases in western Taiwan, to the eastern side of the island. This would make the air bases less vulnerable to attack by Chinese amphibious troops. But everything on Taiwan is vulnerable to air, with the west coast reachable within ten minutes by warplanes flying from China.

May 28, 2004: China apparently believes it can more easily defeat the Taiwanese armed forces with strong words, rather than more modern weapons. China has put enormous economic and diplomatic pressure on countries that even consider selling advanced weaponry to Taiwan. Even the United States gets this treatment, and, to a certain extent, it works. There is a growing block of legislators and voters in America that believes China should not be crossed when it comes to arming Taiwan. All of this plays into a growing complacency among Taiwanese voters, who are growing increasingly reluctant to pay for new, and expensive, weapons. Many Taiwanese believe that the United States will protect them, mainly because Taiwan's high tech economy is, in effect, a key part of the American economy. It's true that Taiwan produces many electronic components that are essential for the smooth running of the American economy. But nothing made in Taiwan is irreplaceable. This is the Chinese view, and China believes that, year by year, Taiwan becomes weaker militarily, while China modernizes and becomes stronger. Eventually, China can attack Taiwan and win, even if the United States intervenes. This sort of siege approach may take another decade or two. But in the Chinese scheme of thinking, such patience is an accepted approach.

March 16, 2004: The Chinese and French Navies are holding a five-day long joint naval exercise off the coast of Qingdao, a port city in east China's Shandong province (about 1,250 kilometers from Taiwan's northernmost point). This cruise is the twelfth visit made by French warships to China and their fourth to Qingdao. Involving around 700 sailors (322 of them French), this is to date the largest joint drill held by the Chinese and any foreign navy.

The corvette-class 'Commandant Birot' and anti-submarine-warfare destroyer 'Latouche-Treville' arrived on March 12, joining the Chinese 'Harbin' destroyer, a supply vessel 'Hongze Lake' and a ship with a helicopter landing pad. The two groups completed flag signal exchanges and fleet formation changes. The March 16 exercises lasted eight hours, including refueling exercises at sea and search-and-rescue exercises, as well as landing helicopters on the other's vessels.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Sing Tao Daily also reported that Chinese heavy military equipment had been moved into the south-western province of Fujian (facing Taiwan) while across the channel, news reports said that mobile antiaircraft missile systems had been quietly deployed in Taipei as police stepped up security.

So why is the timing of this exercise important? And why are the French involved?
This show of military strength just four days before Taiwan holds a presidential election signaled China's desire to isolate the self-governing island before the vote and its first-ever referendum, which Beijing views as a provocative step towards independence. However, China's official Xinhua news agency made no link between the exercises and the election.

China adopted a more subtle approach to avoid driving Taiwan voters into the camp of the pro-independence Chen. In 1996, China threatened Taiwan with missile tests and war games in the run-up to the island's first direct presidential elections, an attempt to dissuade voters from re-electing President Lee Teng-hui. This backfired and Lee won by a landslide.

France simply has more to gain by appearing to side with China. France, once a major supplier of weapons to Taiwan, has made no major deals with them for about 10 years. However, the diplomats can win French businesses a firm footing in a larger and rapidly growing market.

In January, President Chirac sided with China by opposing Taiwanese President Shui-bian's plan to hold a referendum on missile defense concurrent with the presidential elections. Taiwan responded by suspending high-level government exchanges with France. - Adam Geibel

Why Taiwan should be an issue for the 2008 presidential ellection

That's right I said the 2008 election!

Why now you say? Because the Chinese are building up to take Taiwan now we need to begin the discussion about are we going to stand behind our allies when the bullets fly or abandon them.

Ok, so the next question I am sure you are asking is why I think that. Well! I am glad you asked, because as everyone will tell you I have an opinion on everything. Take a look at the following info that primarily comes from www.strategypage.com from Jan. 1st 2004 to now. I have broken them down into categories.